Market movers ahead
- In the US, we are due to get both the jobs report and ISM indices for November. We expect good news from both.
- In the euro area, we are set to get detailed information along with the final Q3 GDP estimate. We expect the tougher global trade environment to show up negatively in the export component. We will also be looking out for German industrial production figures to see whether the worst is over for the German manufacturing sector.
- In China, focus is set to be on PMI data from both Caixin and NBS, which currently show a very different picture. We expect them to converge in November.
- Markets are also likely to be keeping a close eye on US-China trade negotiations and the scope for a phase one deal.
- In the Scandies, we are due to get news from the manufacturing sector, with Swedish and Norwegian PMIs and industrial production out of Sweden, Norway and Denmark.
Weekly wrap-up
- YouGov’s MRP model for the upcoming UK general election, which has a good record, predicts a comfortable win for Conservatives.
- Despite the US signing of a Hong Kong bill, we still believe the US and China will land a phase 1 deal before the scheduled 15% tariff hike on 15 December.
- US equity benchmarks closed at new all-time highs, with cyclical sectors leading the advance. In Europe, the mood stayed more cautious.
- Diminished trade worries and improved global industrial signals underpinned the USD, which has seen multiple sessions of gains.
