Focus On FOMC Minutes For More Clues That Brought Forward The Timeline For Interest Rates Rises

Notes/Observations

• UK Halifax data registered its 1st MoM decline in house prices since January.
• German Industrial Production missed expectations and raising some doubts about the strength of the economic recovery.
• Focus on FOMC Jun Minutes.

Asia

• Japan May Preliminary Leading Index: 102.6 v 102.7e; Coincident Index: 92.7 v 92.7e.

Coronavirus

• UK Chief Medical Officer Whitty: Unlikely the UK will be free from further Covid-19 waves until spring 2022.
• Reports circulated that of the UK govt being accused of delaying Freedom Day after they said fully vaccinated people will still have to follow self-isolation rules until Aug 16th.

Europe

• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min) warned by OBR over threat to national debt from rate rises. Warned that £10B deficit can be fixed only by taxation.
• France Finance Min Le Maire noted his regret EU was not united over corporate tax deal. He added that Ireland’s reaction to OECD tax deal was measured.
• German Forsa Poll on Sept elections: Merkel-allied CDU and CSU Parties: 30% (+1); Greens: 19% (-2%).

Americas

• Treasury official noted that several countries were pushing for a global minimum tax rate above 15%, including the US; decision expected in the next phase of OECD negotiations. Sec Yellen was working with tax committees in Congress to implement OECD’s international minimum tax agreement via budget reconciliation legislation.
• US Department of Defense canceled the JEDI cloud project valued at up to $10B to Microsoft; to seek a new multi-cloud contract, splitting job between Microsoft and Amazon.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5% at 4,072, FTSE +0.6% at 7,140, DAX +0.8% at 15.636, CAC-40 +0.3% at 6,529, IBEX-35 -0.1% at 8,850, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 25,320, SMI +0.5% at 12.028, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open higher across the board and stayed up as the session progressed; better performing sectors include materials and industrials; underperforming sectors include telecom and consumer discretionary; reportedly Telefonica looking to sell stake in Tech unit; reportedly Autogrill looking to work with Dufry; Wise starts trading on LSE; focus on release of FOMC minutes later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include MSC Industrial.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Adidas ADS.DE +1.8% (analyst action), Autogrill AGL.IT +2.5% (not looking at further transactions), Bang & Olufsen BO.DK -7.5% (results), Dufry DUFN.CH +2.4% (analyst action), PageGroup PAGE.UK +3.7% (trading update), Robert Walters RWA.UK +4.1% (trading update), Redrow RDW.UK +2.8% (trading update), Steinhoff SHNH.ZA +12.4% (withdrawal of legal proceedings), Wincanton WIN.UK -9.4% (trading update).
• Consumer staples: Clas Ohlson CLAS.B.SE +2.6% (June sales).
• Energy: EDF EDF.FR +1.3% (outlook), Nordex NDX1.DE +3.8% (order), Shell RDSA.NL +2.5% (trading update).
• Financials: 888 Holding 888.UK -4.3% (trading statement), WDP Warehouses de Pauw WPD.BE +1.6% (analyst action).
• Healthcare: Spire Healthcare SPI.UK -2.9% (delays general meeting).
• Industrials: Bossard BOSN.CH +6.0% (analyst action).
• Materials: Johnson Matthey JMAT.UK +1.8% (analyst action).
• Technology: SAP SAP.DE +3.0% (analyst action).
• Telecom: Telefonica TEF.ES -0.6% (potential asset sale).

Speakers

• SNB Vice Chairman Zurbruegg reiterated stance that current policy remained appropriate and the CHF currency (Franc) remained highly valued. Rise in inflation seen as transitory.
• Russia Fin Min Siluanov stated that was still eyeing eurobond issuance in 2021 despite sanctions costs.
• Japan appointed Masato Kanda as new currency policy chief.
• China said to be prepared to release more metal reserves in near future. China National Reserve Administration (SRB completed its more recent sales from reserves on Monday July 5th
• Former China PBOC official Sheng Songcheng stated that China should “reasonably and appropriately” lower interest rate levels in the second half of this year. Believed the pace of economic growth might ease to 5-6% against the backdrop of fading low base effect.

Currencies/ Fixed income

• USD maintained its form tone with focus on the FOMC Jun Minutes due out during the US afternoon. Dealers to look for more clues that brought forward the timeline for interest rates rises.
• EUR/USD remains near 3-month lows in the lower portion of the 1.18 handle.
• GBP/USD moved below the 1.38 level as focus shifted towards how the UK govt would deal with spread of the coronavirus as it eased restrictions later in July.

Economic data

• (DE) Germany May Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: 17.3% v 17.7%e.
• (NO) Norway May Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.9% prior.
• (NO) Norway May Manufacturing Production M /M: -0.1% v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: 7.6% v 4.7% prior.
• (NO) Norway May Overall GDP M/M: 1.2% v 0.4% prior; Mainland GDP M/M: 1.8% v 0.9%e.
• (DK) Denmark May Industrial Production M/M: +2.6% v -3.3% prior.
• (ZA) South Africa Jun Gross Reserves: $54.5B v $53.3Be; Net Reserves: $51.4B v $51.4Be.
• (UK) Jun Halifax House Price Index M/M: -0.5 v +1.3% prior; Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.5% prior.
• (AU) Australia Jun Foreign Reserves: A$64.7B v A$62.1B prior.
• (FR) France May Trade Balance: -€6.8B v -€6.1Be; Current Account Balance: -€2.3B v -€2.0B prior.
• (CH) Swiss Jun Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 941.1B v 902.5B prior.
• (AT) Austria Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.4% v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 11.2% v 10.9% prior.
• (CZ) Czech May National Trade Balance (CZK): 6.3B v 25.3Be.
• (CZ) Czech May Industrial Output Y/Y: 32.3% v 34.9%e; Construction Output Y/Y: +5.8% v -3.9% prior.
• (HU) Hungary May Industrial Production M/M: +3.4% v -3.2% prior; Y/Y: 40.2% v 39.6%e.
• (MY) Malaysia end-Jun Foreign Reserves: $111.1B v $111.0B mid-month reading.
• (SE) Sweden May GDP Indicator M/M: +0.4% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: 10.2% v 9.2% prior.
• (SE) Sweden May Private Sector Production M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 9.7% v 11.1% prior.
• (SE) Sweden May Industrial Orders M/M: +6.1% v -3.8% prior; Y/Y: 32.7% v 30.3% prior.
• (SE) Sweden May Industry Production Value Y/Y: 24.2% v 27.1% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: 8.4% v 9.2% prior.
• (SE) Sweden May Household Consumption M/M: +2.6% v -5.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.8% v 7.5% prior.
• (SE) Sweden Jun Budget Balance (SEK): -34.0B v 36.9B prior.
• (CN) China Jun Foreign Reserves: $3.214T v $3.201Te (1st decline in 3 months).
• (IT) Italy May Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 3.0%e; Y/Y: 13.3% v 10.8%e.
• (TW) Taiwan Jun CPI Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e; WPI Y/Y: 10.7% v 10.2%e.
• (TW) Taiwan Jun Trade Balance: $5.2B v $5.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 35.1% v 33.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 42.3% v 34.5%e.
• (UK) Q1 Final Output Per Hour Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0% prior; Unit Labor Costs Y/Y: 5.0% v 7.2% prior.
• (IS) Iceland Jun Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -30.2B v -15.6B prior.
• (GR) Greece Apr Unemployment Rate: 17.0% v 16.8% prior.
• (SG) Singapore Jun Foreign Reserves: $398.4B v $398.1B prior.

Fixed income Issuance

• (IN) India sold total INR vs. INR170B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
• (RO) Romania to sell EUR-denominated 9-year and 20-year bonds.
• (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.84B in 2024, 2031 and 2052 DGB bonds.
• (SE) Sweden sold SEK7.5B vs. SEK7.5B indicated in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: -0.2027% v -0.2013% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.73x v 2.03x prior.
• (UK) DMO sold £600M in 0.25% Mar 2051Gilts (UKTi); Real Yield: -2.163% v -1.979% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.41x v 2.31x prior.

Looking ahead

• (IT) Bank of Italy Apr Balance-Sheet Aggregates: Target2 Liabilities.
• (RO) Romania Central Bank (NBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 1.25%.
• 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €5.0B in new 0% Oct 2026 BOBL.
• 05:30 Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €625M in 13-week bills.
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills.
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 28.5% prior.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (RU) Russia OFZ Bond auction (if any).
• 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e July 2nd: No est v -6.9% prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Vehicle Production: No est v 241.4K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 242.0K prior.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.2%e v 3.4% prior; Y/Y: 34.7%e v 36.5% prior.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House.
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Official Reserves: No est v $162.7B prior.
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Jun Minutes.
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: 2.1%e v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: 17.3%e v 23.8% prior.
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil May Broad Retail Sales M/M: 4.6%e v 3.8% prior; Y/Y: 34.7%e v 41.0% prior.
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Vehicle Production: No est v 192.8K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 188.7K prior.
• 08:15 (SE) Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ohlsson on E-Krona.
• 08:30 (CL) Chile Jun Trade Balance: No est v $1.3B prior; Total Exports: No est v $7.9B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.6B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $5.0B prior.
• 08:30 (CL) Chile Jun International Reserves: No est v $48.0B prior.
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.
• 09:00 (CL) Chile May Nominal Wage M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.8% prior.
• 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves (new quarter release).
• 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.147B in APF Gilt purchase operation (7-20 years).
• 10:00 (US) May JOLTS Job Openings: 9.313Me v 9.286M prior.
• 10:00 (CA) Canada Jun Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adj): No est v 64.7 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 59.8 prior.
• 10:30 (TR) Turkey Jun Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -29.0B prior.
• 12:00 (RU) Russia Jun CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.0% prior.
• 12:00 (RU) Russia Jun CPI Core M/M: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.3%e v 6.0% prior.
• 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-year notes.
• 14:00 (US) FOMC Jun Minutes.
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 55.9% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 321.3% prior.
• 15:30 (US) Fed’s Bostic.
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.
• 19:01 (UK) Jun RICS House Price Balance: 79%e v 83% prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun Trust Bank Lending Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior; Bank Lending (ex-trusts) Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan May Current Account Balance (BOP basis): ¥1.807Te v ¥1.322T prior; Adjusted Current Account: ¥1.587Te v ¥1.553T prior; Trade Balance: ¥241.5Be v ¥289.5B prior.
• 22:00 (SL) Sri Lanka Central Bank (CBSL) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep Key rates unchanged; Current Standing Lending Rate at 5.50%; Current Standing Deposit Rate at 4.50%.
• 22:00 (JP) Japan Jun Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies: No est v 5.9 prior.
• 22:30 (AU) RBA Gov Lowe.
• 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills.
• 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 5-year JGB bonds.