The Canadian dollar has edged lower ahead of the North American session. On the economic front, the US releases ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI later today. There are no tier-1 releases out of Canada today, but we’ll get a look at the March employment report on Thursday.
In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3464, up 0.14% on the day.
Markets eye NFP after soft JOLTS Jobs Openings
In the US, a soft JOLTS Job Openings release has investors focussed on the health of the US labour market. Employment numbers have been surprisingly strong in the face of rising interest rates, but investors are smelling blood in the water after a weak employment release yesterday. JOLTS Job Openings fell to 9.93 million in February, down from 10.56 million and its lowest level since May 2021.
Will nonfarm payrolls also miss expectations? If so, it would point to weakness in the labour market and the Fed would have an excuse to take a pause in rates at the May meeting. The ADP Employment Change is expected to fall to 200,000, down from 242,000 prior. A weak reading will garner headlines, but the ADP release isn’t considered a reliable precursor of nonfarm payrolls and is unlikely to swing market direction.
Canada’s job numbers up next
Canada’s employment report usually coincides with the US employment report on a Friday. A quirk in the calendar has Canadian markets closed for a holiday on Friday, so Canada’s employment data will be released on Thursday, a day ahead of the US numbers. The economy is expected to have created 12,000 new jobs in March, down from 21,800 in February, while unemployment is projected to inch higher to 5.1%, up from 5.0%.
- USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3431 earlier today. The next support level is 1.3354
- 1.3590 and 1.3673 are the next resistance line.