Fundamental Analysis

Weekly Focus: Weakening Nordic Housing Markets in Focus


Market movers ahead

  • In the US, we expect to see a catching up effect for non-farm payrolls in November. We expect an increase of 195,000 driven mainly by the service sector.
  • Brexit remains in the spotlight, as the EU says an agreement on phase 1 must be reached on Monday at the latest in order to assess whether 'sufficient progress' has been made in the negotiations' phase 1 to move to phase 2 (future relationship).
  • In all Scandinavian countries, we have interesting data out on housing markets. Sweden and Norway in particular draw our attention following recent weakening. We expect to see declining house prices in both countries.
  • In Norges Bank's regional survey, we expect to see the aggregated output index unchanged at around 1.1.

Global macro and market themes

  • US curve flattening continues; and we look at possible explanations.
  • We believe the factors that have driven the flattening, including expected market pricing of more Fed hikes in 2018, in a low inflation environment will continue to flatten the US curve over the next couple of quarters.

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