In focus today
Focus remains on energy markets ahead of the close of the week, as tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on oil supply disruptions and market sentiment.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE, will be released for January today. The January JOLTs report is also due for release today after a delay caused by the government shutdown. On the more forward-looking front, University of Michigan’s flash consumer sentiment survey will be released for March.
In Norway the Technical Calculation Committee will publish its final report ahead of the front party wage negotiations. Markets will look for potential revisions to the provisional 3.0% CPI forecast in particular, as this would impact wage demands.
UK publishes January GDP data. 2025 finished on a stronger note and PMIs suggest momentum has continued in the new year.
In Sweden, the Labour Force Surveys (AKU) for February will be published today. Yesterday’s figures from the Public Employment Service indicated continued declines in unemployment. However, AKU is notoriously volatile, and following the significant drop in January to 8.0%, we anticipate a slight rebound today to 8.4% due to increased labour force participation. Employment levels have risen and are close to an all-time high, and an unchanged figure today would be reassuring given the weaker GDP reading for January.
Economic and market news
What happened yesterday
The oil price traded around the USD 100/bbl level yesterday and overnight, driven by still high tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns of prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, two tankers in Iraqi waters were hit by explosive-laden Iranian boats, prompting Iraq to halt operations at its oil ports, while Oman relocated vessels from its main oil terminal as a precautionary measure. The oil market has been hit by big shocks over the past two weekends, and the IEA has described the conflict as the largest oil-supply disruption in history. While the IEA announced a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, scepticism remains about its impact, as the volume covers only 25 days of the current disruption, according to Reuters. Overnight, the US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase stranded Russian oil at sea. While the waiver may ease short-term supply pressures, it risks undermining efforts to limit Russian revenue and has drawn criticism from US allies. Pressure on oil prices is likely to persist ahead of the close of the week.
In Iran, newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and called for intensified attacks on US bases, further escalating geopolitical tensions in his first speech.
In the US, the Trump administration is considering a temporary waiver of the Jones Act to address fuel price spikes and supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran. The waiver would allow foreign vessels to transport goods between US ports, easing domestic shipping constraints and potentially lowering costs. Gasoline and diesel prices are at their highest levels in years, creating political risks for Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
Furthermore, in an effort to rebuild tariff pressure after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs last month, the Trump administration has launched two trade investigations under Section 301. The probes target excess industrial capacity in 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, and Japan, and forced labour in global supply chains across over 60 countries. These investigations could lead to new tariffs by summer.
In yesterday’s release, the US goods trade deficit narrowed from USD 99.2bn to USD 81.8bn in January primarily as exports recovered. That said, the deficit remains above last fall’s lows, and we expect it to continue widening later in the year as import volumes are likely to recover.
In Sweden, the final print confirmed the flash estimate with revisions showing year-on-year core inflation (CPIF ex energy) at 1.38%, CPIF at 1.71%, and CPI at 0.49%. Higher energy prices will increase headline inflation in the near term, but we do not expect a rapid rise in underlying price pressures. The pass-through from energy prices to core inflation will depend on the duration of the conflict.
Equities: As oil prices edged up, US equities sold off. S&P 500 closed down -1.5% and small cap Russell 2000 -2.2%. Europe managed better, with Stoxx 600 ending just -0.7%. The US session had more classical risk-off dynamics than last week. Cyclicals underperformed defensives, small caps underperformed large caps and growth stocks underperformed value. Outside energy, we note relative outperformance in materials and consumer staples, while industrials, tech and consumer discretionary sold off the most.
FI and FX: Risk sentiment deteriorated further over yesterday’s trading session following Iran’s new supreme leader vowing to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Equities sold off and oil is currently trading around USD 100/bbl. The USD gained vs most currencies and EUR/USD drop to around the 1.15 mark. SEK was the main underperformer, pushing EUR/SEK above 10.70. EUR/NOK moved higher to just below 11.19 and EUR/DKK stayed elevated above 7.4720, which we expect will continue going into the dividend season. Yields climbed across markets, with Bunds gaining some 2-4bp across the curve and the 1Y EUR ZC inflation swaps trading around 20bp higher over the past two days. 2Y US Treasury yields gained some 10bp. Looking to today, the University of Michigan’s flash March survey will provide the Fed with the first (partial) sense of how consumers’ inflation perceptions have evolved during the war.
