The March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report just dropped into a ghost town but came with a major surprise: +178K vs 60K expectations.
This completely erases the prior month’s -92K release (which did get revised down to -133K – But even this got overshaded by today’s release
This led to a drop in the Unemployment rate to 4.3% (from 4.4%) with the unrounded number at 4.256%
With major US equity and commodity markets fully closed for Good Friday, only Futures are opened and they are quite stuck, in an abbreviated holiday session (Open until 13:30 ET), Wall Street is left holding a massive data release with almost nowhere to trade it.
US Stock Futures and Bonds still sold off as the data pushes back against Cuts even further, as if they were even part of the discussion – The US Dollar is up slightly but its change is measly.
As the economy really seems to be picking up again, traders will have to remain careful on the possible pricing for hikes – That will have to be seen again in the next few months, as the data will progressively reflect higher energy costs.
(Gas prices have been out of this world to be fair – This will weigh on activity).
Stock Futures are selling off
Dow Jones 1H Chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Some algos lost their minds at the release but this did not last long – Stocks remain below their bearish trendline.
Bonds follow suit
Bonds 1H Chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Happy Holidays and enjoy the long weekend!
Things could get very wild at the Monday re-open but could only really pick up on Tuesday, with the heaviest participants only coming back at that time
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