USD/JPY remained volatile last week as another suspected round of Bank of Japan intervention triggered sharp intraday swings during Japan’s Golden Week holiday period, when thinner liquidity amplified market moves. The pair briefly tested the 155 area before recovering to close the week little changed overall. Reports suggest Japanese authorities may have spent close to ¥10 trillion, or roughly $64–65 billion, supporting the yen since April 30, reinforcing the message that officials are determined to resist excessive currency weakness.
At the same time, resilient U.S. economic data continued to support the dollar. April nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, well above expectations of 62,000, marking a second consecutive upside surprise in labor market data. The stronger employment backdrop complicates the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts, particularly as inflation risks tied to elevated energy prices continue to linger.
Despite these macro headwinds, global equities extended their rally. Strong corporate earnings and persistent enthusiasm around AI-related technology shares kept investor sentiment firmly risk-positive. The Nasdaq advanced for a sixth consecutive week, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged to fresh record highs, driven by semiconductor and technology stocks.
Bitcoin also continued to trend higher as broader “risk-on” sentiment encouraged flows into higher-beta assets. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil retreated back below the $100 handle as markets continued to price in hopes of a potential U.S.–Iran agreement. Traders remain focused on Tehran’s response to Washington’s latest 14-point memorandum proposal, with expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough helping to reduce part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets.
However, beneath the surface, cracks in sentiment remain visible. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 48.2 in early May, its lowest reading on record, highlighting growing concerns among consumers over inflation and purchasing power pressures.
Markets This Week
U.S. Stocks
U.S. equities remained firm last week, with the Nasdaq once again reaching fresh record highs. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to struggle below its February highs, reflecting a more selective rally beneath the surface.
Strong earnings results and lower oil prices supported risk appetite as traders continued to anticipate a relatively quick resolution to the Middle East conflict. For now, buying on weakness remains the preferred strategy while momentum stays constructive.
Resistance levels are located at 50,000, 50,500, and 51,000. Support is seen at 49,000, 48,500, 48,000, 47,000, and 46,000.
Japanese Stocks
Following the Golden Week holiday, the Nikkei 225 surged to fresh all-time highs, supported by ongoing optimism around AI and semiconductor-related shares. Notably, the stronger yen following suspected intervention had little impact on Japanese equities, highlighting the strength of underlying bullish momentum.
The breakout to new highs remains technically positive, suggesting traders may prefer to avoid fighting the uptrend. Waiting for pullbacks toward the 10-day moving average could provide more attractive entry opportunities this week.
Resistance is seen at 64,000, 65,000, 66,000, 67,000, and 68,000, while support is located at 62,000, 61,000, 60,000, 58,500, and 57,000.
USD/JPY
Another apparent round of yen-buying intervention from the Bank of Japan triggered several sharp declines in USD/JPY during the holiday period, when thinner market liquidity increased the effectiveness of official action.
However, despite repeated warnings from Japanese officials and persistent intervention risk, USD/JPY still finished the week broadly unchanged. This suggests underlying demand for dollars remains firm while U.S. yields stay elevated.
The upside may remain capped while intervention fears persist, but buying interest continues to emerge on dips. In the current environment, range trading and taking advantage of short-term volatility may remain the more effective strategy.
Resistance levels are at 157.00, 158.00, 159.00, 160.00, and 160.50, while support is seen at 156.00, 155.00, 154.00, and 152.50.
Gold
Gold found support last week as WTI oil prices eased lower and long-term U.S. yields softened modestly. The move helped bullion break above its recent downtrend and encouraged some longer-term buyers to re-enter the market.
However, with the 10-day moving average still tracking sideways, the broader structure continues to favor range trading rather than a sustained breakout.
Resistance levels are located at $4,750, $4,900, $5,000, and $5,100, while support sits at $4,550, $4,500, and $4,400.
Crude Oil
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remained the dominant driver for WTI crude oil last week, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in the coming weeks.
Those expectations helped push WTI back below the $100 level as traders reduced part of the geopolitical premium built into prices during the conflict escalation.
However, negotiations are still expected to take time, and headline-driven volatility is likely to remain elevated. In this environment, fading extreme short-term moves may continue to be the preferred strategy for active traders.
Resistance is located at $100, $110, and $120, while support sits at $90, $80, $75, $70, and $67.50.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continued to grind higher last week as improving market sentiment and renewed appetite for risk assets supported demand. Optimism surrounding a possible easing in geopolitical tensions also helped sentiment across crypto markets.
However, ETF-related selling flows continued to limit upside momentum at times during the week.
The broader outlook remains constructive while Bitcoin holds above the key $75,000 support zone, suggesting buying opportunities may still be favored on pullbacks.
Resistance levels are at $82,500, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is located at $75,000, $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.
This Week’s Focus
- Monday: China CPI and PPI, U.S. Existing Home Sales
- Tuesday: Japan Household Spending, German CPI, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. CPI
- Wednesday: Japan Current Account, E.U. GDP and Industrial Production, U.S. PPI
- Thursday: U.K. GDP, Industrial Production and Trade Balance, U.S. Retail Sales
- Friday: U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production
USD/JPY will remain a major focus this week as traders continue to test whether Japanese authorities are prepared to defend the yen aggressively around the 157 area, or whether intervention activity begins to fade.
At the same time, ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations will continue to shape broader market sentiment, particularly through their impact on oil prices and inflation expectations. Equity markets will attempt to extend recent gains, while upcoming U.S. inflation and retail sales data could prove critical in determining whether higher energy prices are beginning to materially impact inflation trends and consumer demand.
