Gold has paused on Wednesday, after posting strong gains in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1316.19, down 0.06% on the day. On the release front, ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 59.7, beating the forecast of 58.3 points. This marked a 3-month high. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its December policy meeting. On Thursday, the US releases ADP Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment claims.
Gold continues to shine early in the New Year, after climbing 2.2% in December. On Tuesday, gold touched a high of $1321, its highest level since September 15. With the US economy expanding above 3% and the Fed poised to raise rates for a second straight month, the gold rally has surprised many experts, as stronger economic conditions usually translate into increased risk appetite, at the expense of safe haven assets such as gold. Traders can expect some movement from gold on Friday, as the US releases two key employment indicators – wage growth and nonfarm payrolls. If these releases beat expectations, the dollar could recover some of its recent losses and send gold prices lower.
The Federal Reserve will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, with the release of the minutes of the December policy meeting. At that meeting, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, to a range between 1.25-1.50%. The hike marked a vote of confidence in the US economy, and if the minutes are hawkish, the US dollar could gain ground. The economy is in fine form, expanding at an impressive clip of above 3 percent. If this pace continues, the Fed could raise rates up to four times in 2018. Currently, the CME Group has priced in a January rate hike at 98.5%. Despite the rosy economic conditions, inflation has been chronically soft, well below the Fed target of 2 percent. Outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other FOMC members have said that they expect that the strong labor market will push up wages and trigger higher inflation, but this is yet to happen.
