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Weekly Focus: Politics Still Setting the Tone

Market Movers ahead

  • In the US, the jobs report for May is in focus, with average hourly earnings as the most interesting part.
  • In the euro area, we look for a rebound in HICP inflation in May, while Italian political developments will also be in the spotlight.
  • In Japan, labour market data for April is on the agenda, which will be important for the outlook for wages and private consumption.
  • In the Scandies, we will get more insight into the Q1 growth figures.

Global macro and market themes

  • The new Italian government implies market uncertainty for now, but we do not see the debt issue leading to a new euro crisis.
  • USD strength could stick around near term as the US still holds a favourable cyclical position, but should abate further out.
  • Emerging markets are set to remain wobbly near term, although we do not see a contagious situation. However, the dust has not settled in Turkey yet.

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