Bulls are facing strong headwinds from 200SMA (at 110.17, reinforced by Fibo 61.8% of 111.39/108.11 bear-leg) which was cracked on Wednesday and caps today’s action. Overall structure remains bullish and comfortable above broken daily Kijun-sen (109.75). Additional support comes from yesterday’s 5/30SMA bull-cross and today’s attempt to create 5/20cross. Final break above 200SMA would expose Fibo barrier at 110.62 (76.4% retracement) and psychological 111 barrier. On the other side, weakening momentum and overbought slow stochastic warn of further hesitation under 200SMA which could result in extended consolidation before bulls resume. Daily Kijun-sen is expected to hold the downside and keep bulls intact, while break lower would weaken near-term structure. Break below 10SMA (109.45) would generate bearish signal and sideline bulls.
Res: 110.17, 110.26, 110.62, 111.00
Sup: 109.83, 109.75, 109.45, 109.36
