Fri, Jun 24, 2022 @ 22:29 GMT
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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD,AUDUSD, GBPCAD, GOLD, WTI CRUDE, DJIA, FTSE100, DAX

EUR/USD

The EURUSD ended Friday’s trading above important 1.0700 support which was dented on spike to 1.0682, low of the day. The pair ranged between 1.0682 and 1.0736 on Friday, showing strong indecision ahead of the first round of French presidential election. The action remained capped by daily Kijun-sen line during past four days, with brief probe at 1.0776, being short-lived.

Setup of technical studies on daily chart was mixed on Friday, with the pair awaiting results of election for direction signal.

Scenarios see extension below the first pivot at 1.0677 (daily Tenkan-sen), through thin daily cloud at 1.0640 and possible extension to 1.0600 higher base in bearish scenario.

At the upside, break through Kijun-sen barrier at 1.0738 and weekly high at 1.0777 would accelerate above round-figure resistance at 1.0800, through 1.0838 (200SMA) and may spike towards 1.0906 (Mar 27peak).

Support: 1.0700, 1.0682, 1.0657, 1.0640
Resistance: 1.0738, 1.0777, 1.0800, 1.0826

USD/JPY

The EURUSD ended Friday’s trading above important 1.0700 support which was dented on spike to 1.0682, low of the day. The pair ranged between 1.0682 and 1.0736 on Friday, showing strong indecision ahead of the first round of French presidential election. The action remained capped by daily Kijun-sen line during past four days, with brief probe at 1.0776, being short-lived.

Setup of technical studies on daily chart was mixed on Friday, with the pair awaiting results of election for direction signal.

Scenarios see extension below the first pivot at 1.0677 (daily Tenkan-sen), through thin daily cloud at 1.0640 and possible extension to 1.0600 higher base in bearish scenario.

At the upside, break through Kijun-sen barrier at 1.0738 and weekly high at 1.0777 would accelerate above round-figure resistance at 1.0800, through 1.0838 (200SMA) and may spike towards 1.0906 (Mar 27peak).

Support: 1.0700, 1.0682, 1.0657, 1.0640
Resistance: 1.0738, 1.0777, 1.0800, 1.0826

GBP/USD

GBPUSD ended trading on Friday in long-legged Doji, signalling strong indecision, as the pair is entrenched in narrowing consolidation in past three days under fresh multi-month high at 1.2905, posted earlier this week.

Initial support at 1.2770 (lows of last Wed/Thu) is still holding, despite Friday’s short-lived spike to 1.2755, where extended dip was contained by Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2514/1.2904 upleg support, keeping the downside attempts limited for now.

However, correction may extend below 1.2700/55 handles, as slow stochastic is generating bearish signal on daily chart on reversal from overbought territory, which may extend below 1.2700 handle and expose rising daily Tenkan-sen support at 1.2654. Otherwise, we may expect further consolidation, before broader bulls resume towards key barriers at 1.2905 and 1.3000.

Support: 1.2770, 1.2755, 1.2700, 1.2654
Resistance: 1.2834, 1.2859, 1.2905, 3000

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD’s near-term action is on the firmer footing after two consecutive bullish days that managed to retrace over 38.2% of 0.7610/0.7492 downleg and close above important barrier at 0.7541 (daily Tenkan-sen line).

Immediate downside risk of returning to key supports at 0.7472 is sidelined for now, as fresh recovery extension above next pivots at 0.7550/65 (200SMA / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) would generate fresh bullish signal for extended gains 0.7582 (Fibonacci 76.4%) , possibly to attack key near-term barrier at 0.7610 (daily Ichimoku cloud top, reinforced by Kijun-sen line).

Alternatively, return below former pivots at 0.7541/37 (Tenkan-sen / Fibonacci 38.2%) would soften near-term structure and signal that recovery may be running out of steam.

Support: 0.7541, 0.7520, 0.7490, 0.7472
Resistance: 0.7551, 0.7550, 0.7576, 0.7596

GBPCAD

The GBPCAD cross generated strong bullish signal last week’s strong rally and weekly close, as the pair hit fresh multi-month high at 1.7340 and stayed just below it after Friday’s brief easing.

Strong bullish sentiment for British pound is reinforced by firmly bullish technical studies, which are so far ignoring strongly overbought conditions. However, stronger correction could be anticipated in the near-term, after strong bearish signal will be generated on reversal of daily RSI and slow stochastic from deep overbought territory.

Levels to watch at the downside lay at 1.7145 (Fibonacci 23.6% of 1.6515/1.7340 rally), 1.7078 (broken weekly Ichimoku cloud base) and 1.7024 (Fibonacci 38.2%) which should ideally contain dips.

At the upside, barriers lay at 1.7436 (50% retracement of 1.9127/1.5745 descend) and 1.7524 (Sep 15 high).

Support: 1.7185, 1.7145, 1.7100, 1.7024
Resistance: 1.7300, 1.7340, 1.7436, 1.7524

GOLD

Spot Gold maintained strong bullish sentiment despite weekly close red on Friday (the first bearish weekly close after five straight bullish weeks), as last week’s rally cracked important barrier at $1292 (weekly Ichimoku cloud top) on extension to fresh multi-month high at $1295.

Corrective easing was contained at $1275 (Fibonacci 38.2% of $1243/$1295 upleg), keeping intact another downside pivot at $1271 (daily Tenkan-sen line). While these supports hold, near-term focus is expected to remain shifted higher, as bullish technical studies favour final push towards psychological barrier at $1300 and extension above on sustained break.

Support: 1278, 1274, 1271, 1265
Resistance: 1288, 1292, 1295, 1300

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI oil closed strongly in red and below psychological $50.00 support on Friday and generated another bearish signal. In addition, strong bearish weekly close after three straight bullish weeks, weighs on near-term action. Bearish sentiment is growing on fears of failure of extending OPEC output cut and increased production of US shale oil that offset bullish impact on oil prices on recent geopolitical tensions.

Daily technical indicators turned south and reinforce bearish pressure, as broken and widening broken daily Ichimoku cloud continues to pressure the price. If the price sustains break below $50.00 trigger, it may extend towards $48.41 (55 SMA), possibly to fully retrace $47.07/$53.74 upleg of further weakness.

To neutralize immediate downside threats, bounce and close above daily cloud top ($51.03) is seen as minimum requirement).

Support: 49.20, 48.64, 48.64, 48.00
Resistance: 50.00, 50.40, 50.74, 51.03

DJIA

Dow Jones closed in red on Friday, failing to capitalize on Thursday’s strong recovery that was capped by 20 SMA at 20558, with 20/55SMA’s bear-cross that was formed at this zone, further weighs on the market.

Mixed setup of daily MA’s shows not clear direction, however, indicators are holding in the negative territory.

On the other side, near-term technical studies remain bullishly aligned, but the action remains limited by thick 4-hr Ichimoku cloud.

Stronger bullish signals could be expected on lift above 20600 (4-hr cloud top) and 20669 (daily Kijun-sen) that will expose key barrier at 20736 (daily cloud top).

Conversely, return below daily cloud base (20385) will be seen as bearish signal, with extension below 20310 (Apr 19 low) to signal continuation of larger pullback from 21160 (Mar1 all-time high).

Support: 20442, 20385, 20310, 20266
Resistance: 20553, 20600, 20669, 20736

FTSE100

FTSE index ticked higher on Thu/Fri, in extended consolidation above fresh multi-month low at 7032, posted on last e after pound surged on early election news. The price is holding in firm bearish mode and sees limited upside action for now, as strong negative sentiment is maintaining pressure. Strongly oversold studies on daily chart, so far did not produce firmer bullish signals for extended correction, however, such scenario cannot be ruled out.

Break above initial triggers at 7092/7129 (Fibonacci 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of strong 7285/7032 fall last week), would be seen as stronger bullish signals.

Otherwise, the price may spend more time in extended consolidation, before bears resume.

Break below 7032 low would open psychological 7000 support and 6969 (Fibonacci 61.8% of 6675/7444 rally) in extension).

Support: 7032, 7024, 7000, 6969
Resistance: 7077, 7092, 7129, 7149

DAX

DAX made the second consecutive bullish daily close on Friday and sidelined immediate downside risk, seen on last week’s probe below psychological 12000 support. Recovery is facing strong barriers at 1219/12144 (daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines) that formed bearish cross and could limit recovery attempts.

Strong weekly bearish close (the third in a row), continues to weigh) but on the other side, rising daily Ichimoku cloud continues to underpin the action.

Firm break above Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen pivots would be seen as bullish signal, with extension above 12200 zone needed to confirm reversal.

Conversely, fresh attempts below 12000 handle will be seen as negative signal.

Resistance: 12114, 12129, 12144, 12220
Support: 12030, 12000, 11962, 11878

Henyep Capital Marketshttps://www.hycm.com/en
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