The Aussie surged 0.7% in Asia on Tuesday after RBA left interest rates unchanged at record low but left the door opened for easing, as inflation in Q1 remained weak and retailers showed the worst results in seven years, despite Mar figure coming above expectations. Fresh bulls face pivotal barriers at 0.7055/68 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7205/0.6962), with sustained break here needed to sideline immediate downside risk and signal stronger recovery. Overall picture remains firmly bearish and eyes key target at 0.6931 (Fibo 61. 8% of 0.6706/0.7295), with current rally seen as positioning. Recovery should ideally stay capped under 0.7055/68 barriers, but stronger upticks towards a cluster of converged falling daily MA’s at 0.7087/97 zone (20/30/55SMA) cannot be ruled out, before bears regain control. South-heading MA’s and negative momentum on larger timeframes (daily/weekly) supports scenario. Only sustained break above 0.7112 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7205/0.6962 / 100SMA) would neutralize and shift focus higher.
Res: 0.7048, 0.7068, 0.7087, 0.7097
Sup: 0.7022, 0.7000, 0.6979, 0.6962
