AUDUSD is currently finding substantial upside pressure at the 0.6827 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 0.7081 to 0.6670 and from the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) marginally above. Furthermore, the price is retesting a broken downtrend line drawn from December 2018 and the tentative uptrend line pulled from the multi-year low of 0.6670, which is aiding the above outlook.
The short-term oscillators reflect mixed signals in directional momentum. The MACD is declining further below its red trigger line and under its zero mark. However, the Stochastic %K line pivots and points up in the oversold region. That said, the upward sloping 50- and 100-day SMAs and the near completion of the bullish crossover of the 200-day SMA by the 50-day one could warrant some caution for upside corrections.
If buyers resurface and drive the pair over the 100-day SMA, a fortified barrier at 0.6876 – which is where the approaching bullish crossover and 50.0% Fibo reside – could challenge the bulls ahead of another restricting area from the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6924 to the 0.6938 resistance. Overtaking this region, the 0.7031 peak and 0.7047 nearby obstacle could deny further advances.
Alternatively, sellers would immediately need to surpass the tentative uptrend line and the 38.2% Fibo at 0.6827, before encountering the 0.6800 handle underneath. Clearing this, the trough of 0.6753 could halt further losses towards the swing lows of 0.6723 and 0.6709 ahead of the 0.6686 and 0.6670 multi-year lows.
Overall, the short-term bias is bullish above the tentative uptrend line with a break above 0.6876 reinforcing the positive picture, while a break above 0.7031 would cement this view.
