AUDUSD is currently trying to build an uptrend to reach the previous 3-month high of 0.7711. Even though the bullish bias is still intact, the risk could be skewed to the downside as the pair has crossed above the Bollinger band.
The short-term picture is bullish as the pair has been trending above the 50-4-hour and the 200-4-hour moving averages (MA) since July 11. Furthermore, technical indicators also assert a bullish bias, with the RSI fluctuating above 50 whereas the MACD is moving in positive area. However, a risk to the downside is possible as the pair has broken the upper Bollinger band, while the RSI has changed direction from rising to falling, after touching marginally the overbought area.
Should the price head down, a support level could be first found at the 50-4-hour MA of 0.7621 – an area that was previously tested repeatedly. A second support could be met at 0.7611, which is a point on the middle line of the Bollinger bands, whilst further price decreases would target the previous bottom of 0.7571 (lower Bollinger band).
If instead the pair hits to the upside, the latest peak of 0.7663 would act as an immediate resistance. Yet, if the pair manages to climb even higher, the 3-month high of 0.7711 would resist further upward movements
