USDCHF has followed a downward path since the middle of December when it managed to peak above the psychological level of 1.000 for the second time in 2016. Currently, the price is hovering around the 8-month low of 0.9551, reached in the end of June, but the short-term bias is less bearish now.
After the pair crossed below the 50-day and the 200-day moving average (MA) on May 15, the RSI broke into bearish area, while the MACD deepened into negative territory, pointing to a short-term risk to the downside. However, the bearish bias has softened as both indicators have been recently moving closer to neutral ground.
Should the price decline, the swing-low of 0.9551 of the Fibonacci retracement from December to June, would provide an immediate support. Further declines would shift focus first to the area around the psychological level of 0.9500 and second to the area near 0.9400 which were of significance in the past.
Alternatively, if prices go up, a resistance would be found at the latest high of 0.9695. Further up, the 23.6% Fibonacci mark of 0.9737 could be an additional resistance, while a steeper increase would meet the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.9852.
Looking at the medium-term picture, the outlook seems neutral as the pair has been moving in a range since the end of 2015. Yet, if the pair falls below 0.9400 then the outlook would turn bearish as the market action would lead to a resumption of the longer-term downtrend.
