The Euro is taking a breather above new low at 1.0865 (the lowest since early May 2017) and Fibo support at 1.0863 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), following previous day’s 0.38% fall.
Bears face headwinds from Fibo support and oversold daily studies which could keep the pair in extended consolidation, before bears resume.
Wednesday’s close below strong support at 1.0878 (1 Oct low) was initial bearish signal which would be confirmed on break and close below 1.0863 Fibo support.
From the fundamental side, German Jan inflation data, released earlier today, came in line with expectations and previous month figures, with focus turning towards US Jan CPI (due later today) and German / EU Q4 GDP (due tomorrow).
Stronger than expected US inflation results could increase pressure on Euro, but Friday’s GDP releases are key events.
Forecasts show unchanged values from Q3, but miss could hurt Euro further and spark bearish acceleration towards 1.0570 (Apr 2017 trough).
Alternative scenario could be activated only on close above psychological 1.10 barrier (reinforced by falling 20DMA).
Res: 1.0888, 1.0905, 1.0925, 1.0970
Sup: 1.0863, 1.0850, 1.0820, 1.0777