GBPCHF slumped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) which proved an easy obstacle this time but the former strong support region around 1.2190 from the 2016-2017 period came to the rescue.
Although the RSI, Stochastics and Bollinger bands reflect oversold conditions, the indicators have yet to reverse north, keeping the short-term bias negative.
Should the wall around 1.2190 collapse, the sell-off could stretch until the 1.2090 familiar barrier, a break of which could stage another downfall towards 1.1900.
On the upside, the bulls should initially run above the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.2298 of the 1.1670-1.3307 upleg and then above the 1.2390 resistance in order to touch the 200-day SMA currently around the 50% Fibonacci of 1.2489. Beyond the latter, the next target could be the middle Bollinger band (20-day SMA) and the 1.2600 number.
Looking at the medium-term picture, the outlook has switched from neutral to negative following the break below 1.2489. The falling 50-day SMA hints that the bearish sentiment may not change soon.
Summarizing, GBPCHF is currently viewed as bearish both in the short- and medium-term timeframes.
