GBPNOK is currently in the process of a pullback off a fresh fifty-month high, which it registered after the latest push off the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) on March 3. The price appreciation is also reflected in the upward sloping SMAs and the MACD, which, in the positive zone, is rising above its red trigger line as the pair gapped over the inside swing high of 12.22 from February 25 and the highs from May-June 2016.
That said, the RSI currently at its 70 mark, displays signs of negative divergence, which is a reversal signal, and therefore warrants some caution in the very near-term for a possible retracement to the downside.
If sellers manage to close below 12.69 and pull the price down, it could first rest at the 12.35 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 10.54 to 12.92. Moving lower, the area from the 12.27 low to the 12.22 inside swing high could be next to prevent the pair from declining towards the 38.2% Fibo of 12.01. Conquering this, the 50- and 100-day SMAs underneath at 11.97 and 11.88 respectively, could impede the pair from reaching the 11.77 trough and nearby 50.0% Fibo of 11.73.
Alternatively, if buyers drive the price up, initial resistance could come from the multi-year peak of 12.92. Overrunning it could result in a rally till the 13.17 high from January 2016, while overhead close by, the 13.28 and 13.35 tops from back in November of 2015 could come into focus.
Overall, the short- and medium-term picture is bullish above the SMAs. However, caution for a near-term retracement is warranted.
