US dollar index futures have been recouping some of the preceding days’ losses following the plunge from the three-year peak of 103.80. The price is currently hovering above the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs), while the RSI is turning higher near the 50 level. However, the MACD oscillator is still moving beneath the trigger line, continuing the sell-off on price action.

To the upside, immediate resistance could come from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 94.50 to 103.80 at 99.17. Moving higher, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 100.25, slightly above the upper surface of the Ichimoku cloud could be revisited. The next hurdle could come at the 23.6% Fibonacci of 101.62 ahead of the three-year top of 103.80.

Otherwise, if sellers push below the moving averages, initial resistance could come from the 61.8% Fibonacci of 98.06, which stands slightly above the 100- and 200-day SMAs currently at 97.97 and 97.77 respectively. A run below these lines would send the index even lower towards the 94.60 and the 17-month low of 94.50.

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Summarizing, the very short-term bias has turned neutral but if the price shifts above the 103.80 barrier, the picture could turn positive again.


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