AUDUSD’s positive picture recently received some trauma reversing the pair ahead of the 0.6569 peak, driving it under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and below the 0.6447 level, that being the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 0.7031 to the 17½-year low of 0.5506. The increase in negative tensions is also suggested by the easing in positive momentum within the red Tenkan-sen line.
Looking at the short-term oscillators, they too reflect some weakness in upside momentum. The MACD, in the positive region, has slipped below its red signal line while the RSI is fading in bullish territory towards the 50 mark. Additionally, traders need to be aware of the negative bearing in the SMAs, relative to the bigger picture.
Should sellers continue to push below 0.6447, support may stem from the 0.6372 low – where the blue Kijun-sen lies – ahead of a key limiting region from the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6268 until the 0.6253 trough, which also encapsulates the 50-day SMA. Steering under this barrier, the price may rush towards the 0.6212 inside swing high of March 31 before plunging till the 38.2% Fibo of 0.6090, residing at the lower band of the cloud.
Otherwise, if price improves, downwards pressure could originate from the 100-day SMA at 0.6490 ahead of the 0.6569 obstacle. A run higher could meet a tough resistance section from the 0.6656 level to the 0.6684 peak, which includes the 76.4% Fibo and the 200-day SMA. Surpassing this trench may send the pair to test the 0.6749 and 0.6777 highs from early February.
Summarizing, the very short-term timeframe remains positive above 0.6372 and a shift above 0.6684 could see a neutral bias return in the near-term.
