GBPJPY plunged to a new one-month low of 152.89 today, falling below the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) in the short-term. The MACD and the RSI indicators continue to signal a downward move, while the stochastic posted a bearish crossover within the %K and %D lines.
If selling efforts moderate below the 40-day SMA, the next support would be at the 152.45-153.40 area, before tumbling to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 129.30 to 156.06 at 149.75. Below that, the door would open for the 148.45 barrier, which was last active in March.
If the 20-day SMA breaks to the upside, first resistance could form around the 40-month high at 156.06, with a break above it pushing the price straight to the 156.50 barrier, registered in January 2018. Another step higher could send the price towards the April 2016 peak at 162.80.
In conclusion, despite the recent decline, GBPJPY continues to maintain its uptrend. A rally near 156.06 might extend all the way to the 2016 high, boosting the bullish view even more. On the other hand, a continuation of the negative correction, might expose the price to the 200-day SMA currently at 144.75.