HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisEUR/USD Bearish Fibs And Waves Before FOMC Rate Decision

EUR/USD Bearish Fibs And Waves Before FOMC Rate Decision

Currency pair EUR/USD

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release its interest rate decision on Wednesday evening 6pm GMT. The major question is whether the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will keep the rate at 0.75% or raise it to 1.0% which would typically lead to USD strength. The FOMC also offer its economic projections and statement. Price action could see increased volatility during and after the announcement.

The bearish price action of the EUR/USD after price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 (purple) could indicate that the wave 2 has been completed. A break below support (blue) could see price move lower to retest the bottom (green).

The EUR/USD price action is showing lower lows and lower highs which could be part of a new downtrend. The current wave 4 (green) is invalid if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below support could spark a bearish breakout within wave 3 (blue/purple).

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted blue) which restarted the downtrend and continuation within wave 5 (blue). Price has been hesitant to break below the bottom (green) but a 2nd attempt could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 vs 1+3.

The GBP/USD could be building a wave 4 (orange) correction. The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (orange) could act as resistance but a break above the 61.8% Fib makes a wave 4 (orange) less likely. A break below the support trend lines (green) could see a downtrend continuation.

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 4 (purple) at a shallow Fibonacci level from the daily-weekly charts, which makes a larger uptrend more likely. The uptrend stays intact if price manages to stay above the bottom of wave 2 (blue).

The USD/JPY could be building a wave 1-2 (orange) but a break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (orange).

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