The dollar fell to the lowest level since Aug 2021 against Swiss franc on Wednesday, in extension of sharp bearish acceleration in past two days, when the pair lost 1.1% of its value.
Fresh weakness broke through key med-term supports at 0.9060/80 zone (lows of Nov 2021 / Feb/Mar 2023), signaling continuation of larger downtrend from 1.0147 (Oct 2022 peak) which still requires confirmation on sustained break of these levels.
Initial target lays at 0.9000 (psychological), followed by a higher base at 0.8925/30 (May 2021), which guard key support at 0.8757 (2021 low, the lowest since 2015).
Firmly bearish studies on all larger timeframes (day / week / month) support the notion, although oversold conditions suggest that bears my lose traction and enter consolidation in coming sessions.
Broken Fibo barrier at 0.9085 (76.4% retracement of larger 0.8757/1.0147 downtrend) reverted to initial resistance, ahead of falling 10DMA (0.9140) which is expected to cap extended upticks, to keep bears intact.
The US dollar’s near-term outlook remains weak, with the latest downbeat US data and signals that Fed’s tightening cycle is likely near its end, add to negative stance.
Today’s ADP private sector labor data (Mar 200K f/c vs Feb 242K) is in immediate focus, as markets look for more information about the situation in the US labor sector, with more details to be provided by Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (Mar 240K f/c vs Feb 311K).
Caution on holiday-thinned markets due to Good Friday, which may spark higher volatility.
Res: 0.9085; 0.9119; 0.9140; 0.9186.
Sup: 0.9000; 0.8925; 0.8871; 0.8757.
