The USD/JPY and EUR/USD currency pairs are showing moderate corrections. Market participants are locking in profits and shifting to a wait-and-see approach after the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, in which the regulator reaffirmed its commitment to the current interest rate levels amid uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook.
In the coming trading sessions, market attention will focus on a batch of statistics from the US, Japan, and the Eurozone. Today, weekly US jobless claims data and the second estimate of Q1 US GDP growth rate are expected. Tomorrow, the focus will shift to Japanese inflation data (CPI), unemployment rate, and industrial production, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 145.80 level, correcting in response to changes in Japanese government bond yields. The yield on 30-year bonds has dropped to 2.85% from last week’s high of 3.2%, while the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 1.46%. According to sources close to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, a survey among primary dealers indicates structurally low demand for long-term bonds — this could signal a future reduction in their issuance. Amid declining yields, the yen’s strengthening has slowed, and interest in the dollar has stabilised.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY indicates a potential upward movement towards the 146.30–147.00 range, as a “piercing line” candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart. A drop below 144.00–143.80 could invalidate the bullish scenario.
Key events that could influence the USD/JPY rate:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP Growth Rate
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
- Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is holding around the 1.1250 level, consolidating near local highs. The euro is showing resilience, but further movement will depend on the release of key macroeconomic data from both the US and the Eurozone.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a possible retest of the critical support zone at 1.1200–1.1140, as a “bearish engulfing” pattern has appeared on the daily chart. A sustained move above 1.1420 could signal a potential resumption of the uptrend.
Key news that could determine the direction of EUR/USD:
- Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Consumer Confidence Index in Italy
- Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+3): Eurozone M3 Money Supply
- Tomorrow at 15:00 (GMT+3): German Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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