Gold (XAU/USD): In a Bullish Consolidation Above US$3,688 Despite a Firmer US Dollar

Key takeaways

• Gold hit a fresh all-time high at US$3,791 on 23 September before consolidating in a short-term uptrend.
• Current price action forms an “Ascending Triangle”, signalling potential for a bullish continuation if resistance at US$3,785 is cleared.
• Key short-term support is at US$3,688; holding above this level keeps the bullish bias intact.
• US 10-year Treasury real yield remains capped below 1.87%, supporting Gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

The precious yellow metal has staged the expected rally and hit the predefined resistance of US$3,776, as highlighted in our report. Gold (XAU/USD) printed an intraday all-time high of US$3,791 on Tuesday, 23 September 2025, and shaped a minor slide of -19% to hit an intraday low of US$3,717 on Wednesday, 24 September, before it traded sideways.

Despite a stronger US dollar seen ex-post FOMC, where the US Dollar Index recorded a week-to-date gain of 0.8% as of the time of writing on Friday, 26 September 2025, Asia session, Gold (XAU/USD) has remained resilient with a week-to-date gain of 1.6%.

Let’s now focus on the latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), relevant key elements, and key levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective ahead of today’s key US PCE data (inflation, personal income, and spending) releases.

Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 26 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) major trend as of 26 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Since its US$3,791 current intraday all-time high, Gold (XAU/USD) has started to consolidate in a potential minor bullish continuation configuration called “Ascending Triangle” within its short-term uptrend phase in place since 22 August 2025 low.

Maintain bullish bias for Gold (XAU/USD) with a tightened short-term pivotal support at US$3,688, and a clearance above US$3,785 (“Ascending Triangle” range resistance) opens scope for another bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances at US$3,820/3,840 and US$3,865 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

• The ongoing consolidation for Gold (XAU/USD) is taking place within its minor ascending channel in place since 22 August 2025 low. The upper boundary/resistance of the minor ascending channel stands at around US$3,865/3,890 (see Fig. 1).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) remains above an ascending support at around the 50 level (see Fig. 1).
• The 10-year US Treasury real yield (excluding 10-year breakeven inflation rate) medium-term downtrend remains intact despite an ongoing bounce seen from a key near-term support at 1.66% from last Wednesday, 17 September 2025, as it remained below its 50-day moving average that is acting as key medium-term resistance at 1.87% (see Fig 2).
• Based on intermarket analysis, a cap on any further rebound in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87% reduces the opportunity costs of holding Gold (XAU/USD) as it is a non-income-bearing asset, in turn, creating a further positive feedback loop back into the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 2).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at the US$3,688 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish consolidation scenario for a deeper mean reversion minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,660 and US$3,620 (also close to the 20-day moving average).