Euro remains firmly in red and holds just above new 2026 low (1.1160) on Thursday, pressured by strong dollar, higher oil prices and developing fiscal crisis in France.
In addition, overall negative German trade data (surplus narrowed, exports declined further while imports showed minor improvement) could contribute to negative near-term outlook.
The pair held firmly in red for the fourth consecutive week and broke below the support line of multi-month bear channel, bringing in focus next targets at 1.1130/00 (50% retracement of 1.0177/1.2082 uptrend / 200WMA / round-figure) which guard psychological support at 1.1000.
The EURUSD rides on very stretched (over FE 338.2%) third wave of five wave cycle from 1.1711 (Aug 21 top), with daily studies in full bearish setup (strong negative momentum / multiple MA bear-crosses), but with RSI being oversold for some time that warns of increased headwinds bears may face.
However, potential upticks are likely to be limited in current Euro-negative environment, with barriers at 1.1280/1.1320 zone (falling 10DMA / former low of June 24) to ideally cap and offer better levels to re-enter bearish market.
Res: 1.1235; 1.1280; 1.1320; 1.1355
Sup: 1.1160; 1.1130; 1.1100; 1.1065
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