Our Elliott Wave analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) identified a potential bearish setup in advance, outlining an expected corrective recovery in a Flat Structure followed by another move lower. The subsequent price action delivered a significant decline, with Bitcoin falling from the $81,000 region toward $74,000.
This analysis looks at our original forecast, the Elliott Wave structure behind it, and how the market subsequently unfolded.
The Forecast: 11.04.2026
In our November 4 Bitcoin 1-hour chart, we were tracking the completion of a corrective recovery within a broader bearish structure.
Our preferred Elliott Wave count suggested that Bitcoin had completed the earlier corrective sequence, labelled wave Y, and was potentially transitioning into a new bearish phase.
However, rather than recommending an immediate sell, we anticipated a corrective bounce in a Expanding Flat Structure before the next decline.
The chart outlined a potential five-wave recovery, with waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v) expected to develop toward the $78,800 region. This recovery was expected to complete wave ((b)) of XX, setting the stage for another bearish move.
The key invalidation level was placed at $81,896.
As long as Bitcoin remained below this level, our preferred scenario was for the corrective bounce to fail and price to turn lower.
We also clearly stated on the chart that we did not recommend selling prematurely, emphasizing the importance of waiting for the appropriate market setup.
What is and Expanded Flat? (Bearish)
A Bearish Expanded Flat is a corrective Elliott Wave structure that unfolds in a 3-3-5 sequence and often appears during corrections within a larger trend. The pattern is characterized by an “expanded” Wave B, which extends beyond the start of Wave A, creating the appearance of a false breakout before the market reverses.
In the example shown:
Wave A unfolds as a corrective 3-wave advance.
Wave B declines in 3 waves and breaks below the origin of Wave A, creating the expanded portion of the pattern.
Wave C rallies in a 5-wave impulsive structure and extends above the end of Wave A, completing the corrective sequence.
The psychology behind a Bearish Expanded Flat is that Wave B temporarily convinces traders that the trend has resumed lower. However, the failure to sustain the breakdown leads to a strong reversal in Wave C, which often catches market participants off guard and pushes prices to a new corrective high.
Once Wave C completes, the entire corrective structure is considered finished, and the market typically resumes the larger-degree trend. Traders often monitor the completion of Wave C near Fibonacci extension areas, looking for signs that the corrective cycle is ending.
Key Characteristics:
Corrective structure: 3-3-5
Wave B extends beyond the start of Wave A
Wave C exceeds the end of Wave A
Often traps traders during Wave B
Signals the correction is nearing completion once Wave C matures
Now that you have a better understanding of the Expanded Flat structure, you can relate it to the BTC forecast we presented in the image above.
What Happened Next? Bitcoin Turned Lower
The subsequent price action confirmed the bearish direction outlined in our analysis.
Bitcoin advanced toward the $81,000 region, reaching approximately $81,125 before reversing sharply lower.
Following that high, BTC experienced a substantial decline, breaking below the $80,000, $78,000, and $76,000 levels.
By our November 10 update, Bitcoin was trading around $74,181, demonstrating the strength of the bearish move.
Note: Certain labels have been intentionally concealed to protect the exclusivity of our members.
The market had not only reversed from the anticipated resistance region but had also extended lower than the initial downside projection shown in our earlier chart.
This is precisely why we focus on identifying corrective structures and anticipating the next directional move rather than chasing price after a significant move has already occurred.
The Importance of Invalidation Levels
One of the most important aspects of our forecast was the predefined invalidation level.
We identified $81,896 as the level that would invalidate our immediate bearish scenario in the November 4 analysis. The November 10 update also highlighted $81,125 as the invalidation level for its updated count.
These levels provided a clear framework for evaluating the bearish outlook rather than relying on an unconditional prediction.
Our approach is to establish the preferred Elliott Wave count, identify the extreme areas, define the invalidation level, and allow price action to confirm or invalidate the scenario.
Final Outlook
Bitcoin’s subsequent decline provides another example of how Elliott Wave analysis can help identify potential market turning points and anticipate directional moves.
The broader lesson is the importance of understanding market structure, respecting invalidation levels, and remaining patient while waiting for the appropriate trading setup.
Our objective remains unchanged: identify the most probable Elliott Wave structure, map out potential price paths, and trade in the direction of confirmed market signals rather than chasing price.
Why choose EWF ?
At Elliottwave Forecast (EWF), we deliver consistent Bitcoin (BTCUSD) updates through regular charts update. Our analysts update 1‑hour charts four times daily and 4‑hour charts once per day across all 78 instruments. In addition, we host five live sessions each day and maintain a 24‑hour chatroom, providing clients with real‑time market guidance and answers to any questions they may have.
You can start a 14‑day trial with us today here and cancel anytime by emailing support@elliottwave-forecast.com to get regular updates on BTCUSD.
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