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NIESR expects 0.1% UK GDP growth in Q4, Q1 risk on the downside

After today’s UK GDP release, NIESR forecasts that GDP in December will fall relative to November. But overall, service-driven GDP growth of 0.1% in Q4 is estimated.

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Associate Economist, NIESR, said: “Given that PMIs for services, manufacturing and construction all posted below the neutral 50 for December, we expect to see a slight fall in GDP in December relative to November; but this means a rise in quarterly GDP, possibly a sign that households are enjoying a last hurrah before they tighten their belts in 2023.

” Looking towards the first quarter of 2023, the risks to GDP seem to remain on the downside, driven by anaemic growth in the major sectors, fragile consumer and business confidence and a widespread fall in real incomes.”

Full release here.

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