Gold surged to a fresh record high above 4,400 today, finally breaking out after weeks of subdued momentum. Though, Silver is still taking the lead, extending its powerful rally toward the psychologically important 70 level.
Thin holiday trading conditions amplified the reaction, but the underlying driver is a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. Safe-haven demand accelerated after US President Donald Trump and senior aides refused to rule out military conflict with Venezuela, jolting markets that had largely discounted further escalation in Latin America.
Washington is now intensifying pressure on Venezuelan oil exports, tightening what traders increasingly see as a de facto blockade. Multiple vessels have reportedly been seized off Venezuela’s coast in international waters, with another currently being pursued. The move adds further strain on the government of Nicolás Maduro, heightening fears of miscalculation and retaliation.
At the same time, optimism around a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine fades. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a durable ceasefire as negotiations drag on without tangible progress. Comments over the weekend suggested talks remain focused on aligning positions rather than finalizing concrete outcomes, reinforcing skepticism over near-term resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Against that backdrop, Gold’s technical breakout arrived earlier than expected. The decisive break above 4,381.22 suggests that consolidation from that peak had already completed at 3,997.73. Near-term outlook will stay firmly bullish as long as 4,271.41 holds as support on any pullback.
Attention is now on whether price can push cleanly through the rising channel ceiling, a move that would signal further upside acceleration. If that ceiling gives way, the next target comes in at the 61.8% projection of the 3,267.90 to 4,381.22 advance from 3,997.73 at 4,685.76.
As for Silver, outlook will remain bullish as long as 64.43 support holds. 4H MACD suggests that it’s likely now in an upside re-acceleration phase. Next target is 138.2% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.50 at 72.68. Break there will target 161.8% projection 76.83.
