Sterling surges after much stronger than expected retail sales data in May.

Retail sales include fuel rose 1.3% mom versus expectation of 0.5% mom and prior 1.8% mom.

Retail sales include fuel rose 3.9% yoy versus expectation of 2.4% yoy and prior 1.4% yoy.

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Retail sales ex-fuel rose 1.3% mom versus expectation of 0.3% mom and prior 1.4% mom

Retail sales ex-fuel rose 4.4% yoy versus expectation of 2.5% yoy and prior 1.4% yoy.

Here are the main points from the release:

  • In May 2018, the quantity bought in the retail industry increased by 1.3% when compared with April 2018 with growth across all main sectors.
  • Feedback from retailers suggested that a sustained period of good weather and Royal Wedding celebrations encouraged spending in food and household goods stores in May.
  • The quantity bought saw a sharp increase to year-on-year growth in May at 3.9% when compared with April at 1.4%; possibly due to a combination of warm weather and slow year-on-year growth in May 2017 at 0.8%.
  • Non-store retailing showed strong growth in the quantity bought when compared with the previous year at 16.2%, the previous month at 4.5% and in the three months to May at 4.9%.
  • Online spending for food, department and clothing stores continued to increase, achieving new record proportions of online retailing in May at 5.8%, 17.4% and 17.6% respectively.
  • The proportion of online spending in clothing stores has grown at a much faster rate in the last 14 months, from 14.7% in March 2017 to 17.6% in May 2018.

Full release here.

GBP/USD’s break of 1.3424 minor resistance now suggests that rebound from 1.3203 is going to resume through 1.3471. It could target 100% projection of 1.3203 to 1.3471 from 1.3307 at 1.3575.


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