Dollar trades mildly higher today but stays mixed for the week ahead of US non-farm payroll report.
Markets are expecting 190k growth in non-farm payrolls in June, down from May’s 223k. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have another month of 0.3% mom growth.
Overall, other employment indicators pointed persistently healthy job markets in the US, even though momentum might have slowed a little bit. ADP private employment came in slightly weaker than expected at 177k versus expectation of 180k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped -0.3 to 56.0. Employment component of ISM non-manufacturing dropped -0.5 to 53.6. Initial jobless claims averaged 221.25k in June, staying a ultra-low level historically. Conference board consumer confidence dropped from 128.8 to 126.4 in June but stayed high.
Barring any large surprise that deviate drastically from expectation, reactions to NFP should be temporary. Fed is on course for two more rate hikes this year. And, a month or two of data are not going to alter that path.
