According to a Reuters July 15-18 poll, the median forecasts of no-deal Brexit happening was 30%, up from 25% in June and 15% in May. That’s also the highest number since October 2017. Analysts perceive that Boris Johnson is likely to win the Conservative leadership race and get the job of UK Prime Minister. And his rhetoric during the campaign suggests that no-deal Brexit is more than than before.
According to the same poll, the chance of recession was 30% in the coming year and 35% over the new two years, up from June’s 25% and 30%. Also, expectation of BoE rate hike also receded and bank rate is forecast to stay at 0.75% until 2021 at the earliest. Only 27 to 76 economists expected a hike before the end of 2020, down from 36 of 69. 9 of 76 are expecting a cut be end-2020, up from 5 of 69 in June.
Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson are the two remaining candidates in the leadership race. Winners will be selected by a postal ballot of around 160k Conservative members. Voting will close on July 22 and new leader would be announced on July 23.