Fed kept monetary policy unchanged overnight as widely expected and reiterated the pledge to maintain rate target at 0-0.25% ” until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” Chairman Jerome Powell said there will be a “large increase” in economic activity when people are coming out to spend again while unemployment goes down. However, “it is unlikely it will bring us quickly back to pre-crisis levels,” he added. “Trying to be really precise about when that might happen and what the numbers might look like – it is very tough to do that.”
Some suggested readings on Fed:
- Fed Markedly Downgraded Economic Assessments on Sharp Decline in Activities and Surge in Unemployment
- No New Measures, But Fed Support Not Going Away Any Time Soon
- No Surprises from FOMC Today, But Ongoing Commitment to “Use Its Full Range of Tools” to Support the Economy
- Northern Exposure: US GDP 5% Annualised Fall in Q1 Evidence of Shock to Come
- April 2020 Fed Meeting Instant Analysis
Dollar softened a little bit further after FOMC’s announcement and press conference. But there was no avalanche selling. Dollar index is back pressing 55 day EMA and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 102.99 are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 100.93 is likely the third leg. Break of 55 day EMA will pave the way to 98.27 support and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 94.65 to 102.99 at 97.83 to bring rebound.
DOW rose 532.31 pts, or 2.21% to close at 24633.86. But that’s mainly due to news that Gilead Sciences found promising results of its experiments on coronavirus treatment drug remdesivir. Technically, DOW’s rebound from 18213.65 could extend higher. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 25230.99 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Break of 22941.88 support will mark short term topping and bring near term reversal.
