ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a speech that in all scenarios developed, Q2 represents the “trough” of the coronavirus crisis. A “significant rebound is expected over the summer” in line with removal of the most severe lockdown measures.

But the scenarios differ in terms of the “duration and severity” of virus-related restrictions on economic activity and the behaviors of households and firms in the rest of 2020 and throughout 2021. In the most severed case, real GDP would fall by -12% in 2020.

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