New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose to -31.8 in July, up from June’s -34.4, but down from prelim reading of -29.8. Confidence was worst in agriculture at -54.5 and beat in retail at -22.6 while all sector stayed negative. Own activity outlook rose to -8.9, up notably from June’s -25.9, but also revised down to -6.8. Activity was worst in agriculture again at -15.2 but best in services at -5.0.
ANZ said “bounces are fun, but this one has probably nearly run its course.” It warned that “unfortunately, that blow is coming; it’s inevitable.” Border will remain closed for the rest of the year, which is “one of the few certainties in our economic forecasts at the moment”. That means “big hole in economic activity, centred on tourism and the foreign education sector.” Also, the blow “won’t be felt evenly” with the country “split into two economies – the tourism-dependent regions and the rest”.
