Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Victoria’s stage 4 lockdown could shrink GDP between AUD 7B and AUD 9B in Q3. Overall impacts together with prior imposed restrictions in Melbourne could cost between AUD 10B to AUD 12B, an impact of around 2.5% of GDP. “Treasury’s assessed the impact of these new restrictions and notes there’s a high degree of uncertainty in relation to any of these estimates,” Morrison said. “This is a heavy blow.”

Also, headline unemployment could peak at close to 10%, with real unemployment rate at 13%. “It is estimated — the increase in effective unemployment — to be between 250,000 and 400,000,” Morrison said. “That isn’t necessarily people who have lost their employment, it also includes those whose employment has been reduced to zero hours.”

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