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IMF expects less severe global GDP contraction at -4.4% this year

In the World Economic Outlook Update, IMF revised 2020 global GDP contraction to -4.4%, revised up by 0.8% from June’s update. The less severe than expected contraction reflects better-than-anticipated Q2 GDP outturns as lockdowns were scaled back in May and June, as well as indicators of a stronger recovery in Q3.

For medium-term outlook after rebound in 2021, “global growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 percent into the medium term”. This implies “only limited progress toward catching up to the path of economic activity for 2020-2025 projected before the pandemic”.

IMF also noted that “the uncertainty surrounding the baseline projection is unusually large” resting on public health and economic factors that are “inherently difficult to predict”.

Looking at some details:

  • World output in 2020 revised up by 0.8% to -4.4%.
  • World output in 2021 revised down by -0.2% to 5.2%.
  • US output in 2020 revised up by 3.7% to -4.3%.
  • US output in 2021 revised down by -1.4% to 3.1%.
  • Eurozone output in 2020 revised up by 1.9% to -8.3%.
  • Eurozone output in 2021 revised down by -0.8% to 5.2%.
  • Japan output in 2020 revised up by 0.5% to -5.3%.
  • Japan output in 2021 revised down by -0.1% to 2.3%.
  • UK output in 2020 revised up by 0.4% to -9.8%
  • UK output in 2021 revised down by -0.4% to 5.9%.
  • China output in 2020 revised up by 0.9% to -1.7%.
  • China output in 2021 left unchanged at 8.2%.

Full report here.

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