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AUD/NZD extending rally, AUD/CAD to follow

Aussie is outperforming other commodity currencies in the past two weeks. AUD/NZD’s rally extends today to as high as 1.0825 so far. The break of 1.0795 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise from 1.0278. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0752 support holds, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0314 to 1.0795 from 1.0613 at 1.0910.

More importantly, the strong support from 55 week EMA suggests some underlying medium term bullishness. The break of channel resistance from 1.1042 also argues that the correction from there has completed with three waves down to 1.0278. Rise from 0.9992 (2020 low) is likely resuming through 1.1042 towards 1.1289 long term resistance.

Meanwhile, AUD/CAD is still capped below 0.9460 short term top for now. But the strong support from 55 day EMA gives upside breakout a favor. Break of 0.9460 will resume the rebound from 0.8960 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9991 to 0.8906 at 0.9577. Sustained break there will further affirm the case that correction from 0.9991 has completed at 0.8906. Also, in this case, the larger rise from 0.8058 (2020 low) should be ready to resume through 0.9991 at a later stage.

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