RBA raises the cash rate target by only 25bps to 2.60%, smaller than expectation of a 50bps hike. Tightening bias is maintained as the board “expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead”. The size and timing of future hikes will continued to be determined by incoming data and the board’s assessment of inflation and labor market outlook.
In the accompanying statement, RBA said inflation is expected to “further increase” over the coming months. CPI would be around 7.75% over 2022, a little above 4% over 2023, and around 3% over 2024. The economy is “continuing to grow solidly” with national income boosted by a “record level of the terms of trade”. Labor markets is “very tight”. Wages growth is “continuing to pick up” but “remains lower than in other advanced economies” with high inflation.
AUD/USD dips slightly after the smaller than expected rate hike, but there is no follow through selling. Consolidation pattern from 0.6362 is still in progress with bearish bias for downside breakout at a later stage.
