UK NIESR said, today’s data confirmed a “production-driven contraction in GDP in Q3. It’s expectation GDP growth to be flat in Q4.
However, “given that October PMIs recorded figures below the neutral 50 for both the services and manufacturing sectors, consumer and business confidence is plummeting, and higher-than-expected inflation and interest rates continue to squeeze budgets, the risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter of this year remains elevated, NIESR said.
“Whether the Chancellor’s upcoming Autumn Statement will alleviate or aggravate current recessionary risks will become clearer next week.”
