Australia’s NAB Business Confidence ticked down from 1 to 0 in February. Business Conditions rose from 7 to 10. Trading conditions rose form 9 to 14. Profitability conditions rose from 6 to 9. Employment conditions rose from 5 to 6.
Cost pressures remain a significant concern. Labor (2.0% in quarterly equivalent terms) and purchase cost (1.8%) growth stayed constant. Product price growth rose from 1.1% to 1.3% while retail price growth surged from 0.9% to 1.4%.
Alan Oster, NAB’s Chief Economist, pointed out that cost pressures “clearly remain elevated”, and there’s scope for firms to pass this through to output prices.”
He emphasized the role of global supply improvements in driving the progress on disinflation so far, cautioning that future advancements is “unlikely to be linear.”
According to Oster, the path to returning inflation within RBA’s target band by 2025 is fraught with uncertainties. He predicts a “cautious approach” from RBA, with interest rates to be “on hold for most of this year.”
