Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs has slightly lowered its growth projections for the economy, reflecting ongoing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
The latest forecast now sees GDP growth at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous estimates of 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively. This means the Swiss economy will likely continue expanding at a pace below its historical average of 1.8%, extending a period of subdued economic momentum for at least two more years.
SECO emphasized that while the base scenario assumes no full-blown global trade war, some negative effects from current trade frictions are still expected, adding pressure on both investment and economic activity.
According to SECO, a negative trade scenario—where international economic activity weakens further—would “significantly impact Swiss exports and domestic economic activity”. On the other hand, an upside scenario exists, particularly if Germany successfully implements its massive fiscal package.
However, for now, SECO believes “downside risks to the economy currently outweigh upside potential”. Also Swiss Franc’s could face upward pressure if downside risks materialize.
