Speaking today, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said rising global tariffs and economic uncertainty are likely to “reduce medium-term inflation pressures” in New Zealand, and drag on the country’s economic rebound through mid-2026. While the US faces rising costs from tariff-induced supply chain disruptions, Conway said New Zealand is more likely to experience disinflation due to lower global growth and falling import prices.
He highlighted that strong export prices—particularly for dairy and beef—alongside lower domestic interest rates are supporting the economy for now. But widespread uncertainty is causing both consumers and firms to take a wait-and-see approach, which is curbing spending and delaying investment decisions.
Given this backdrop, Conway confirmed that the RBNZ retains a dovish tilt. If inflation continues to ease as expected, there is “scope to lower the OCR further”.
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