Sterling slipped today after softer-than-expected UK inflation data reinforced expectations that the BoE remains on track to cut rates again this year—though not as soon as the next meeting. A November pause still appears more likely, with solid reasons to wait until after the November 26 Budget and another round of inflation data before committing to further easing.
However, expectations for a December rate cut have strengthened notably. Interest-rate futures now assign roughly a 75% probability that the BoE will lower the Bank Rate to 3.75% from 4.00% at the December meeting—up from about 46% before the CPI release. Traders have also brought forward expectations for the next move, fully pricing a second 25-basis-point cut by February 2026, a month earlier than previously anticipated.
In the currency market, the Pound’s selloff was broad but relatively shallow. The muted reaction reflected that traders see the BoE cutting soon—but not urgently—keeping Sterling supported above key levels for now.
Technically, GBP/CHF is still holding above 1.0582 temporary lower despite today’s dip. Some more consolidations could still be seen. Nevertheless, near term outlook is staying firmly bearish with 1.0778 resistance intact. Break of 1.0582 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1204 to 1.0658 from 1.0959 at 1.0413.
