US consumer confidence softened in June, with the Conference Board’s headline index falling from 93.1 to 91.2, missing expectations of 94.2. The decline reflected weaker assessments of current economic conditions, even as consumers became slightly more optimistic about the outlook for business conditions and personal incomes.
The Present Situation Index dropped from 119.4 to 116.4, while the Expectations Index improved from 71.4 to 74.4, though it remained well below the 80 threshold that has historically been associated with recession risks.
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said falling oil prices had “provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” but noted that perceptions of the labor market “softened measurably.” The share of respondents saying jobs were “hard to get” rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021, suggesting households are becoming more cautious about current employment conditions.
Inflation expectations eased further over the month, reflecting lower energy prices following the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. However, expectations for interest rates remained elevated, with 61.5% of respondents still anticipating higher rates over the next 12 months.
| Indicator | Previous | Latest | Consensus | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence | 93.1 | 91.2 | 94.2 | Missed expectations |
| Present Situation Index | 119.4 | 116.4 | — | Current conditions weakened |
| Expectations Index | 71.4 | 74.4 | — | Improved, but remained below the recession-warning threshold of 80 |
| Jobs ‘Hard to Get’ | — | 22.5% | — | Highest since January 2021 (22.8%) |
| 12-Month Inflation Expectations | Higher | Eased | — | Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns |
