US durable goods orders rose 1.8% m/m in September, accelerating from August’s upwardly revised 0.1% increase and exceeding market expectations of 1.6%. Total new orders climbed $6.3B to $345.4B, marking the sixth increase in seven months. However, the headline strength was heavily concentrated in transportation equipment, where orders surged 4.6%, accounting for $5.2B of the overall increase. Nondefense aircraft orders jumped 28.4%, providing the principal boost. Excluding transportation, orders rose a more moderate 0.5%, up from 0.3% in August but slightly below expectations of 0.6%.
Underlying business investment indicators remained constructive, although momentum was mixed. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched measure of business equipment investment intentions, increased 0.5%, slowing from August’s 1.6% gain. Nevertheless, shipments of the same category accelerated from 0.6% to 1.2%, suggesting firmer equipment investment activity. Elsewhere, machinery orders rose 1.2%, while computers and electronic products gained 0.8%, indicating continued demand across several manufacturing categories despite the concentration of headline growth in transportation.
The broader manufacturing picture also showed resilience. Durable goods shipments rebounded from -0.2% to +0.9%, while unfilled orders increased 0.8% to $1,623.6B and inventories rose 0.3%. The continued expansion in shipments and order backlogs suggests manufacturers are maintaining activity even as new orders fluctuate across sectors. Overall, September’s report points to sustained but uneven manufacturing demand, with improving equipment shipments offering a positive signal for business investment, while the aircraft-driven headline cautions against interpreting the 1.8% increase as a broad acceleration in industrial activity.
Data Summary
US Durable Goods Orders — September 2026
| Indicator (m/m) | Aug | Sep Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | +0.1% | +1.8% |
| Excluding Transportation | +0.3% | +0.5% |
| Excluding Defense | +0.3% | +2.2% |
| Core Capital Goods Orders (ex-Aircraft) | +1.6% | +0.5% |
| Core Capital Goods Shipments (ex-Aircraft) | +0.6% | +1.2% |
| Nondefense Aircraft Orders | +0.3% | +28.4% |
Additional Manufacturing Indicators (m/m)
| Indicator | Aug | Sep |
|---|---|---|
| Transportation Equipment Orders | -0.3% | +4.6% |
| Machinery Orders | +1.0% | +1.2% |
| Computers and Electronic Products Orders | +0.5% | +0.8% |
| Durable Goods Shipments | -0.2% | +0.9% |
| Unfilled Orders | +0.6% | +0.8% |
| Inventories | +0.5% | +0.3% |
Source: US Census Bureau, September 2026 Advance Durable Goods Report. August figures are revised.
Key Takeaways
- Headline orders beat expectations: Durable goods orders accelerated from +0.1% to +1.8% m/m, exceeding the +1.6% consensus. Total new orders rose $6.3B to $345.4B, marking the sixth increase in seven months.
- Aircraft account for much of the headline strength: Transportation equipment orders surged 4.6%, contributing $5.2B of the total $6.3B increase. Nondefense aircraft orders jumped 28.4%, making transportation the principal driver.
- Underlying demand improves more modestly: Orders excluding transportation rose from +0.3% to +0.5%, slightly below expectations of +0.6%. This suggests continued demand growth, but not an equally broad acceleration across manufacturing.
- Core business investment orders moderate: Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slowed from +1.6% to +0.5%, pointing to more moderate growth in new equipment investment demand.
- Core shipments provide a stronger investment signal: Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft accelerated from +0.6% to +1.2%, suggesting firmer equipment investment activity despite slower growth in new orders.
- Manufacturing activity remains resilient but uneven: Durable goods shipments rebounded from -0.2% to +0.9%, while unfilled orders increased 0.8% and inventories rose 0.3%. The figures support continued manufacturing activity, although growth remains concentrated in certain industries.
