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China Xi’s speech at Boao Forum may disappoint

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech at the Boao Forum for Asia on Tuesday will be a key focus this week. Xi has so far been quiet regarding the trade tensions with US President Donald Trump. There are expectations for Xi to make use of the occasion to push back and defend. Or, Xi could say something consistent with China’s theme of blaming US for unilaterialism and protectionism,

However, Xi’s leadership and communication style is clearly very different from Trump’s. And it’s, to us, unlikely for Xi to suddenly change his style to adopt a confrontational way like Trump. That is, the way that Trump tripled down on the tariff proposals to USD 150b immediately after Chinese response. Nor would Xi adopt a way like Trump, who could say “President Xi and I will always be friends” right after raising the threat to China. We’ve never heard Xi saying that Trump is his friend (haven you?). It’s more likely for Xi to just reiterate the push for globalization, compliance with then WTO and its own commitment in opening up the markets. Xi, as self-envisaged emperor, will just let his officials do the barking.

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