Fri, Jan 22, 2021 @ 22:53 GMT
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Dollar Rebounds Broadly as Risk Appetite Recedes

Dollar rebounds broadly today following receding risk appetite. Investors are apparently paring their gains in stocks. Swiss Franc and Euro are the next strongest, followed by Yen. On the other hand, Australian Dollar and Sterling are the worst performing. In particular, the Pound was weighed down by sharp deterioration...

France PMI composite dropped to 47 in Jan, but return of employment growth a big positive

France PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.5 in January, up from 51.5, a 6-month high and beat expectation of 50.8. PMI services. on the other hand, dropped to 46.5, down from 49.1, missed expectation of 48.3. PMI Composite dropped to 47.0, down from 49.5. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:...

Trump Stimulus Shocker, France Reopens Border, Dollar Drops

Trump veto threatens to derail stimulus package The unpredictability of President Trump provided a shock overnight that sent risky assets tumbling as Congress’s hard-fought battle for a fiscal relief deal seemed in jeopardy. Trump is making a push for USD2,000 checks, much more than the USD600 that has already been...

France PMI composite rose to 49.6, expansionary mindset exemplified in employment and confidence

France PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.1 in December, up from 49.6, above expectation of 49.6. PMI Services rose to 49.2, up from 48.8, above expectation of 39.3. PMI Composite rose to 49.6, up from 40.6, a 4-month high. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: "With lockdown restrictions having eased...

Dollar Breaking Down as Stocks Surge on Vaccines, Sterling Jumps on Brexit Optimism

The global markets are quickly back in risk-on mode today. DOW future is back above 30k handle, as coronavirus vaccine rollout began. There seems to be some progress in the US Congress for fresh fiscal stimulus too. Dollar is under broad based selling pressure, followed by Canadian and Yen...

Bank of France revises down 2021 growth forecasts due to new restriction measures

Bank of France said in a report that "the rebound in the economy observed in the summer and early fall 2020 was very clear but it is temporarily interrupted by the resumption of the epidemic and the new health restriction measures put in place since October". It also warned...

Sterling Weighed Down by Same Old Brexit Concerns, as UK-EU Divergences Remain

Sterling turns generally lower in quiet holiday-mood trading today. Sellers are back in control as there appears to be no path out of the Brexit trade talk deadlocks yet. And, time is running out clearly. Overall, Yen and Dollar remain the worst performing ones of the week, on general...

EUR/USD Steady as French Data Beats Forecasts

EUR/USD is up slightly on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1926, up 0.11% on the day. With the US on an unofficial holiday after Thanksgiving, Friday will likely be a muted session. France GDP bounces back As the United Kingdom finally bids adieu to the European Union at the...

France GDP grew 18.7% in Q3, consumer spending rose 3.7% mom in Oct

According to the second estimate, France GDP grew 18.7% in Q3, after the -13.8% decline back in Q2. Despite the strong bounce, GDP remained well below the level it had before the pandemic. In volume terms, GDP was down -3.9% yoy. In October, consumer spending rose 3.7% mom, much better...

Sterling Accelerates Higher on Vaccine News, Dollar Resumes Selloff

Dollar's selloff resumes today as stocks rallies on more positive news on coronavirus treatment. British drugmaker AstraZeneca said it's vaccine could be around 90% effective, and as many as 200 millions doses could be ready by year end. The news also lifts Sterling to be the best performer so far...

France PMI composite dropped to 39.9, businesses adapting well to new restrictions

France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.1 in November, down from October's 51.3, missed expectation of 50.1. PMI Services dropped to 38.0, down from 46.5, matched expectations. PMI Composite dropped to 39.9, down from 47.5. All are 6-month lows. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: "With the renewed tightening of...

Yen Selling Takes Off as World in Euphoria on Coronavirus Vaccine News

The world, at least the financial markets part, is in euphoria today on news that tens of millions doses of coronavirus vaccine are ready this year, to pull it out of the coronavirus pandemic that took away over 1.2 millions lives. DOW future is in massive rally, up around...

Bank of France estimate -4% GDP loss in Oct, -12% in Oct on pandemic restrictions

Bank of France said the outlook for November is "on the whole oriented clearly downwards", but in a more differentiated and limited way than during the first round of coronavirus restrictions earlier this year. The loss of GDP in October, comparing to normal pre-pandemic level is estimated at around -4%,...

Traders Calm ahead of Pre-Election Weekend, Dollar Pares Gains

Investors are rather calm just ahead of the pre-election weekend. European indices quickly pare back initial losses, while DOW future is down not as much before open. Dollar is also giving up some of this week's gains, despite pretty solid personal income and spending data. On the other hand,...

France GDP grew 18.2% qoq in Q3, all domestic demand rebounded sharply

France GDP grew 18.2% qoq in Q3, better than expectation of 15.0% qoq. That's more than enough to recover the -13.7% qoq contraction in Q2. Yet, GDP remained well below the level it had before the pandemic. Comparing to Q3 2019, GDP was -4.3% yoy lower. All components of domestic...

Sell, Mortimer! Sell!

Europe equity markets slide on German, French lockdowns The blue wave trade became Moody Blue overnight, as buy everything turned into sell everything. Although Asian markets wobbled yesterday, it was Europe that led the rout as France and Germany enacted national lockdowns lite in an attempt to control their exploding...

Euro Under Fire As New Lockdowns Loom

Euro on the chopping block ahead of potential French lockdown Markets in a sour mood overall as Trump pulls ahead in Florida polls Stocks under heavy pressure, defensive yen shines Coming up: Central bank decisions in Canada and Japan Euro finally wakes up to the risks The single currency is...

France Considers National Lockdown

Speculation is mounting in France that the government is considering going all in and announcing a new one-month national lockdown to combat exploding numbers of Covid-19 cases. Previously, it had been thought that localised lockdowns, and extended curfews, would be France’s most likely course, a similar path taken by...

Euro Tumbles on Coronavirus and Lockdown, Yen Riding Higher

European majors are all trading broadly lower today on worsening coronavirus spread and return to lockdowns. Mild risk aversion keeps the Japanese Yen afloat but it's outperformed slightly by Aussie, after slightly stronger than expected Australian CPI reading. Dollar is mixed for the moment, benefitting little from risk aversion....

Euro down as France prepares for tougher lockdown, EUR/CHF maintains bearishness

European majors are trading generally lower today on worries over coronavirus spread and lockdowns. France reported 523 deaths on Tuesday, highest since April. UK also reported 367 new deaths, highest since May. Italy and Greece also saw new cases surged to new record. French President is scheduled to give a...

Dollar Softens Again as Global Stocks Regain Ground ahead of Weekend

Dollar is back under pressure today as global stock markets strengthen mildly before weekend. Though, overall markets are relatively mixed as we're seeing some strengthen in both Swiss Franc, Euro and Aussie. On the other hand, Sterling, and Canadian are softer. The developments suggest that major pairs and crosses...

France PMI composite dropped to 47.3, notable negative impact from rise in COVID

France PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 51.0 in October, down from 51.2, matched expectations PMI Services dropped to 46.5, down from 47.5, below expectation of 47.0. PMI Composite dropped to 47.3, down form 48.5, hitting a 5-month low. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: "The results suggest that the...

Dollar Stays Strong But Yen Retreats With Rebound in Stock Markets

Dollar remains the strongest one for today but Swiss Franc and Sterling have overtaken as the next strongest. Sterling is some what helped by solid PMIs but Euro shrugged off the disappointing PMI readings. European stock markets are having a solid rebound today while US equities might further pare...

France PMI composite back in contraction at 48.5, recovery path reversing

France PMI Manufacturing rose to 50.9 in September, up from 49.8, above expectation of 50.6. However, PMI Services dropped to 47.5, down from 51.5, missed expectation of 51.7. PMI Composite dropped to 48.5, down from 51.6, hitting a 4-month low and was back in contraction. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets This morning, European markets mostly traded in wait-and-see modus, counting down to the ECB policy decision/press conference. Equities apparently found a new short-term equilibrium after some sharp swings end last week and early this week. Bonds showed now clear trend. The euro kept some by default up-side bias as...

Dollar Shrugs Income and Spending Report, Selloff Continues

Fed chair Jerome Powell inspired a fresh round of Dollar selloff which his Jackson Hole speech, which carries on to today. Stronger than expected personal income and spending, as well as core inflation reading provide little support. Though, for now, the decline appears to be mainly centered against commodity...

France GDP -13.8% in Q2, low point reached in April

According to first estimate, French GDP dropped -13.8% qoq in Q2. It's -19% down lower than GDP back in Q2 2019. INSEE said, "the gradual ending of restrictions led to a gradual recovery of economic activity in May and June, after the low point reached in April." Looking at some...

Euro and Sterling Plummets on Brexit Deadlock, Yen Surges

European majors tumble broadly today as UK and EU reminded us that Brexit negotiation remained in deadlock. Additionally, some PMI data from Eurozone suggested that momentum of recovery was quickly fading, in particular in the services sector. Yen is rising broadly today as stock markets turn into risk-off mode....

France PMI manufacturing back in contraction, fragile demand conditions

France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.0 in August, down form 52.4, well below expectation of 53.0. It's also now back in contraction. PMI Services dropped to 51.9, down sharply from 57.3, missed expectation of 56.3. PMI Composite dropped to 51.7, down from 57.3. Economist at IHS Markit said: "Following the...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Risk appetite dwindled somewhat today. Stocks decline slightly with moves up to 0.5% lower. With no major news flashes, today’s move tells nothing more than markets taking a breather after a strong start of the month (f.e. Eurostoxx50 is up already 6%). US jobless claims came in stronger than...