Sun, Jan 17, 2021 @ 06:40 GMT
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Trade surplus in Germany and Italy widened, EUR/CAD mildly higher

Germany exports dropped -9.4% yoy to EUR 96.1B in June. Imports dropped -10.0% yoy to EUR 80.5B. Trade surplus came in at EUR 15.6B. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, trade surplus widened to EUR 14.5B, up from EUR 7.6B, above expectation of EUR 10.3B. Industrial production rose 8.9%...

France GDP contracted -13.8% qoq in Q2

France GDP contracted -13.8% qoq in Q2, better than expectation of -15.2% qoq. Over the year, it's -19.0% yoy lower than in Q2 2019. INSEE said the negative developments in first half of the year is linked to the shut down of "non-essential"activities between mid-March and beginning of May....

France PMI composite rose to 30-month high, confirming recovery phase following lockdown

France PMI Manufacturing rose dropped to 52.0 in June, down from 52.3, missed expectation of 53.2. PMI Services rose to 57.8, up from 50.7, well above expectation of 52.3. That's also the highest level in 30 months. PMI Composite rose to 57.6, up from 51.7, also a 30-month high. Eliot...

Yen Staying Firm But Risk Markets Refuse to Give Up

The financial markets are still refusing to commit to a direction. Major European stocks are generally higher despite broad selloff in Asia. US futures point to lower open while 10-year yield is doing its best to hold on to 0.6% handle. Swiss Franc is currently the worst performing one...

Aussie Tumbles on Coronavirus Spike, Yen Flies on Risk Aversion

Yen surges broadly today as the financial markets are back in risk-off mode. Or at least, rally in Chinese stocks is having a pause. Investors some what turned cautious ahead of the week. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced sanctions on some Chinese officials, including a Politburo member,...

French industrial production rose 19.6% in May, still down -21.2% from Feb

France industrial production rose 19.6% mom in May, above expectation of 15.0%. It also nearly recovered all of April's -20.6% decline. Nevertheless, compared to February, the last month before the start of general lockdown, outlook was still down -21.2%. Full release here.

Gold Surges Through 1800 While Currencies Range Bound

Major forex pairs and crosses are staying inside yesterday's range as trading turned subdued. US futures are nearly flat despite mild weakness in European markets. Europe majors are currently the strongest ones for the week, as led by Sterling. The Pound is paying no attention to the deadlock in...

INSEE: France economy to rebound by 19% in Q3 and 3% in Q4

France INSEE said the country's economy has likely contracted -17% in Q2 over the quarter, unchanged from June's forecast. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to rebound by 19% in Q3, and a further 3% in Q4. By December economic activity would be around 1-6% below pre-coronavirus levels. For 2020...

Selloff in Yen and Dollar Intensifies as PMIs Paint Recovery Optimism

Selloff in Yen and Dollar intensifies mildly today while Australian Dollar and Euro are picking up some rally. Investors sentiments are generally lifted by better than expected PMIs. In particular, France and Australia appear to be back in expansion. European indices are trading higher while US futures point to...

France PMIs: Finally enter recovery, manufacturing at 21-month high

France PMI Manufacturing rose to 52.1 in June, up from 40.6, well above expectation of 46.0. That's also the highest level in 21 months. PMI Services rose to 50.3, up from 31.1, beat expectation of 45.2. That's the highest level in 4 months. PMI Composite rose to 51.3, up...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Core bonds hold a minor positive bias today with US Treasuries outperforming German Bunds despite tonight’s 10-yr Note auction. Risk aversion helps the safe haven bid. The German yield curve flattens with yield changes ranging between +0.8 bps (2-yr) and -3.1 bps (30-yr). Peripheral yield spreads vs Germany widen...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Today’s most interesting moves occurred on the FX market and were partly technically in nature. The stretch between the pessimistic economic reality and the optimism ventilated through stock markets increased. European and US equity indices ignored a flurry of negative news, ranging from US/Chinese trade disruptions over US social...

Euro Power Continues, Follow by Yen on Mild Risk-Off

Markets are in mild risk off mode before weekly close, awaiting US President Donald Trump's "interesting" and "powerful" measures on China. Though, this time, Euro is boosted as the strongest one, followed by Yen. Dollar and Swiss Franc are the weakest for today. Overall, Euro is staying as the...

France Q1 GDP revised down to -5.3%, consumer spending dropped -20.2% in Apr

According to second estimate, France GDP dropped -5.3% in Q1, revised down from -4.8% in first estimate. Household consumption expenditure recorded an unprecedented drop (-5.6%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell even more sharply (-10.5%). All in all, total domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) contracted: it contributed...

France Manufacturing Confidence Is Falling

This morning, France May Manufacturing Confidence was released at 70, much lower than the 85 expected. On its side, the May Consumer Confidence was published slightly higher than the 92 expected, at 93. French Q2 GDP may also fall by 20%, according to INSEE. From a technical point of view,...

EU Centeno: Franco-German recovery fund a critical part of larger and coordinated coronavirus response

In an interview with German weekly Welt am Sonntag, Eurogroup head Mario Centeno said that the Franco-German proposal of EUR 500B recovery fund could be a "critical part" in the "larger and coordinated" coronavirus response". It would "allow us to protest the single market in the recovery phase". He...

Dollar Recovery Attempt Falters Quickly, Swiss Franc Dives Again

The financial markets are, generally speaking, a bit mixed today. European stocks are slightly in red while US futures are down. But losses are very limited. Bulls are still in overwhelming control. In the currency markets, Swiss Franc drops sharply as recent volatile trading continues. Dollar attempted for a...

France PMI composite rose to 30.5, activity still in decline from already low base

France PMI Manufacturing improved to 40.3 in May, up from 31.5, above expectation of 40.3. PMI services rebounded notably to 29.4, up from 10.2, just missed expectation of 30.0. PMI Composite rose to 30.5, up sharply from 11.1. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: "As anticipated, the latest France...

German Maas very confident on EU support for Franco-German recovery plan

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said he's "very confident" that the Franco-German Recovery Fund plan will get broad support from EU members. He added, "it is a first step to a European solution, we will have to discuss the details within Europe but we have agreed that we must...

Germany And France Propose A EUR500bn Recovery Fund

Market movers today We get the German ZEW indicator today. Expectations showed a strong bounce back in April and it will be interesting to see if the upbeat mood continues and whether it will begin to reflect in current economic conditions. We will monitor the gradual opening of economies across the...

France GDP Fell 5.8% In First Quarter

France first Quarter GDP fell 5.8% on year, vs -3.6% expected. This morning, France's INSEE has released first Quarter GDP at -5.8% on year, much worse than the -3.6% expected. March Consumer Spending fell 17.9% on month, vs -5.8% expected. April inflation rose 0.4% on year, vs +0.2% expected. Later...

France GDP shrank record -5.8%, worse than 2009 and 1968

France GDP dropped by -5.8% qoq in Q1, worse than expectation of -4.0% qoq. That;s also the largest contraction since record started in 1949. In particular, it's bigger than the ones recorded in Q1 2009 (–1.6%) or in Q2 1968 (–5.3%). INSEE also noted that GDP's negative evolution in Q1...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The title of today’s IHS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI says it all: “Unprecedented collapse of Eurozone economy amid virus lockdown”. The composite PMI plummeted to an all-time low of 13.5 in April, with services (11.7) takings the biggest hit (manufacturing PMI: 33.6). Recall that the previous, February 2009 low,...

Euro Downside Breakout after Terrible PMIs, Dollar Dragged by Jobless Claims

Euro suffers heavy selling in today on terrible PMI data, which suggests that the coronavirus pandemic damage could be far more severe than imaginable. The common currency drags down the Swiss Franc too. Dollar couldn't ride on Euro's weakness and even faces some selling after another set of astronomical...

France PMIs dropped to new record low, two areas to watch for V recovery chance

France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 31.5 in April, down from 43.2. PMI Services dropped to 10.4, down from 27.4. PMI Composite dropped to 11.2, down from 28.9. All are record lows. Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: "Going forward, there are two key areas of focus. Firstly, how quickly...

EU Indices Slightly Down This Morning | TA Focus On Vivendi

INDICES Friday, European stocks rebounded further, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gaining 2.6%. Germany's DAX 30 climbed 3.2%, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 increased 2.8%. and France's CAC 40 jumped 3.4%. EUROPE ADVANCE/DECLINE 90% of STOXX 600 constituents traded higher Friday. 85% of the shares trade above their 20D MA vs 74% Thursday...

European Majors Rise on Partial Lockdown Exit, Dollar Decline Continues

Dollar's decline continues today on improving risk sentiments. In particular, it's back under pressure against Euro and Swiss Franc despite earlier recovery attempt. Canadian Dollar is not far away with drag from weakening oil price. On the other hand, European majors are generally stronger today, partly with help from...

France GDP to contract -8% this year as lockdown extends to May 11

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the country's economy is set to contract -8% this year, instead of -6% as mentioned just last week. Coronavirus lockdown was originally planned to end today, but was delayed to at least May 11. To help the economy, Le Maire said the government...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets While the rise in coronavirus cases in China and some European countries seems to be slowing by the day, the amount of deaths is still increasing in many areas, including the US. It creates a difficult setting in which investors find themselves often in a straddle. Today’s initial risk mood...

Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 29.7, GDP contracting near to -10% annualized

Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 26.4 in March, down from February's 52.6. PMI Composite was finalized at 29.7, own from February's 51.6. that's the biggest single monthly fall, as well as a survey record low. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Composite dropped to 35.0, France to...