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Would The Report Mark The Start Of A Base Effect Driven Jump Inflation?

Markets Markets started the week in wait-and-see modus ahead of key upcoming events including the US mid-month refinancing, US (inflation) data and the start of the earnings season. A risk-off start in Asia had only a limited impact. US and European indices lost less than 0.5%, which isn’t that bad...

Week Ahead – US and China Data Could Reinforce Optimism but RBNZ to Sound Caution

As the dollar recedes on some scepticism around the aggressive bets of an early Fed tightening, US inflation and retail sales numbers due in the coming week could reignite those expectations. There could be a further boost to the global recovery outlook if Chinese GDP figures point to strong...

Weekly Focus – Wait and See Mode for Central Banks

US yields have taken a step back this week causing a weaker USD. Some profit taking might also play a role for the USD following a few very strong months. In Europe, bunds moved sideways. Equities have continued to edge higher on a global scale and US markets hit...

Germany Heading For Contraction, FTSE Pauses For Breath

Despite a fresh record high for the S&P overnight, European stocks are subdued on the final day of trading for the week. Concerns over the sluggish vaccine rollout in Europe and its impact on the region’s economic recovery are dragging on risk sentiment, overshadowing a dovish-sounding Fed Chair Powell. Federal...

Equities Higher On Dovish Fed Comments

Market movers today German industrial production for February will likely increase amid strong momentum for the German manufacturing sector. The US PPI inflation is likely to jump significantly to 3.8% in March mainly due to base effects and higher energy prices. The 60 second overview ECB minutes: ECB had a slightly...

Rotational Spin

US markets paused for breath overnight, with Wall Street easing slightly after a frenzied Monday session. Rotational spin was the theme of the day, and yesterday's lucky recipient was the European Union, with markets delivering the author a slap in the face after yesterday's note. Having driven US markets...

Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 53.2, increasingly adapted to life with the virus

Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 49.6 in March up from February's 45.7. PMI Composite was finalized at 53.2, up from prior month's 48.8, highest level since last July. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Composite was finalized at 57.3, a 37-month high. Ireland PMI Composite rose to...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Returning from the long Easter weekend, European investors started the week navigating through several sets of (exceptionally) strong US data published late last week and yesterday. However, as was the case for US trading yesterday, European markets also didn’t find an unequivocal script to follow. Strong US ISM’s and...

Recovery Optimism Sends Dax to Record High

Dax, FTSE gain ground European stocks are bounding higher on Tuesday, rallying to record levels on signs of economic recovery, even as the region battles with its third wave of Covid and attempts to ramp up its vaccine programme. News that Germany plans to have 20% of its population vaccinated by...

Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to 13.1, expectations building on accelerated vaccination

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 13.1 in April, up from 5, well above expectation of 6.7. That's also the highest level since August 2018. Current situation index rose from -19.3 to -6.5, highest since February 2020. Expectations index rose from 32.5 to 34.8, an all-time high. Sentix said: "Investors...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The OPEC+ meeting features high on today’s agenda. Saudi Energy Minister Bin Salman said in the run-up to the meeting that OPEC’s cautious approach in March has been proven right. The cartel kept mutual and individual (Saudi Arabia) output curbs in place because of the uncertain path of the...

German Retail Sales, PMIs Eyed

The euro has recorded slight gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1743, up 0.25% on the day. Will German Retail Sales lift euro? It has been a tough 2021 for the euro, which started the year above the 1.22 level but has since faltered, falling 2.6%...

New Problems With Vaccinations In Europe Have Stopped The Growth Of The Stock Market And Put Pressure On The Euro

On Tuesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany will stop using the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine for people under 60 starting from Wednesday, after the appearance of several new cases of blood clots. There was a policy change after the publication of new data on potential side effects approved by...

Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Will Be Scrutinized, Especially With Respect To Its Funding

Markets It was again business as usual on markets yesterday. The Suez Canal and Archegos sagas made way for the global reflationary story, which was supported by the data as well. EC economic confidence in the euro zone surprised to the upside (101 vs. 96 expected) as did the US...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets With the dust on the potential fall-out of the Archegos saga settling and the Suez Canal reopening, global markets could leave these side-stories behind and return to ‘business as usual’. The latter these days still means assessing the progress of the vaccinations and the impact of upcoming (US) fiscal...

US Yields Resume Climbing

Market movers today German inflation is released, giving early signs of tomorrow's euro area inflation print. Overnight, the official Chinese PMI manufacuting and service PMIs for March are released. We expect an increase - mainly as a temporary correction after a big drop in the past three months. Metal...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets In the absence of eco data, non-economic events were the main focus for trading today. Equity investors pondered potential further contagion from forced block selling of positions in Chinese tech shares and some US media firms that were linked to position squaring of the Archegos capital fund. For now,...

DAX Outlook: Consolidating Under New Record High, Overbought Daily Techs May Further Slow Bulls

The Dax is consolidating under new record high (14864) on Monday, after strong advance in past two days. Last Thursday’s bullish candle with long tail signaled downside rejection and an end of shallow pullback, while further acceleration on Friday confirmed strong bids. The export-heavy index was boosted by continuous improvement in...

Ifo: Eurozone economy to contract slightly by -0.4% in Q1, then recovers from Q2 onwards

Germany's Ifo institute said short term perspectives for Eurozone economy are "highly uncertain". On the one hand, "the start of the vaccination campaigns gives some reason for optimism". But on the other hand, "from the beginning of March onwards the pandemic situation has started to worsen almost everywhere with...

Focus On EUR Inflation And Third European COVID-19 Wave In Coming Week

Market movers today With no major economic releases today, market focus is on efforts to unblock the Suez Canal from the stuck container ship, which is obstructing global value chains. Later in the week, the key release is the non-farm payroll on Friday, but also euro area inflation, US...

US Open: Financials Soar, PCE Inflation Sends Yields Lower, EUR Rebounds

Key gauges of the health of the US consumer will not get much attention since these February readings come in between massive stimulus bills. US household spending fell by 1.0% and personal income plunged by 7.1% in February. The key economic release of the morning was the February PCE Deflator...

Yen Tumbles Broadly as Risk Appetite Returns

Yen is sold off broadly today as risk appetite returns to the markets. European indices are all trading in black at the time of writing, while US futures also point to a rebound. Additionally, US 10-year yield is also trading higher. Swiss Franc, Dollar and Euro are trading as...

Germany Ifo business climate rose to 96.6, highest since Jun 2019

Germany Ifo Business Climate rose to 96.6 in March, up from 92.7, above expectation of 93.0. That's also the highest level since June 2019. Current Assessment index rose to 93.0, up from 90.6, above expectation of 92.4. Expectations index also rose to 100.4, up from 94.2, above expectation of...

US LT Yields Show Tentative Signs Of Bottoming

Markets European and US equities yesterday balanced between hope and fear. Fears on a slower opening of the (European) economy due to new virus revival and a difficult start of the European vaccination process initially dominated trading. Sentiment gradually improved in US dealings, partially supported by president Biden pointing out...

European Open: Dollar Holds Firm, GBP Rises Ahead Of UK Retail Sales

The USD held onto yesterday's gains which came on the back of stronger economic data and a faster vaccine rollout. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 33.6 points (0.49%) to close at 6,824.20 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 414.78 points (1.45%) and currently trades at 29,146.00 ...

Restrictions On Dividends Set To End For Large US Banks

Market movers today The German Ifo for March is published today. Ifo Business Climate, Expectations and Current Conditions are all expected to improve. US February PCE core inflation, which is the Fed's preferred inflationary measure, is published today and expected to run at 1.5% y/y. We are also due for the...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Trading mainly developed through the risk angle today. The recent (European) corona setback outweighs the reflation story in the short run. End of quarter rebalancing out of stocks into bonds might have added to recent moves. European stock markets currently decline around 1%. The technical picture of the EuroStoxx...

Swiss Franc Decline Slows after SNB, Dollar Attempting Rise after Jobless Claims

Sterling trades mildly higher in rather quiet market today while Euro and Yen turn softer. Dollar is attempting to extend this week's rally after better than expected jobless claim data. But no follow through buying is seen in the greenback yet. Swiss Franc's selloff slowed mildly after SNB upgraded...

The Market Ignored The Positive PMI Data. Stock Prices Continue To Fall And The Dollar Continue To Fall and The Dollor Continues To Rise

German production rose at a record pace in March, according to IHS Markit, resulting in growth across the Eurozone. The PMI jumped to 66.6 from 60.7 in February, well above the expectations of 60.8. The data point to record growth in manufacturing activity amid record growth in production and...

Germany Gfk consumer climate rose to -6.2, just a flash in the pan

Germany Gfk Consumer Climate for April improved to -6.2, up from -12.7, above expectation of -11.8. For March, economic expectations rose from 8.0 to 17.7. Income expectations rose from 6.5 to 22.3. Propensity to buy also rose from 7.4 to 12.3. Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert: "The hard lockdown will...