Sun, Nov 29, 2020 @ 04:12 GMT
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Germany Gfk consumer climate dropped to -3.1, recovery come to a standstill

Germany Gfk Consumer Climate for November dropped to -3.1, down form -1.7, missed expectation of -2.5. Economic expectations dropped from 24.1 to 7.1. Income expectations dropped from 16.1 to 9.8. Propensity to buy edged slightly lower from 38.4 to 37.0. "The rapid increase in infection rates is leading to a...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Trading on global markets showed somewhat of an indecisive, even slightly inconsistent picture. Recent trends of higher long term (US) yields and a weaker dollar continued. However, this wasn’t met by the ‘usual’ rise of (European) equities to complete the picture of a standard risk-on trading pattern. Eco data...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The EU successfully auctioned 10y and 20y supranational social bonds to finance its €100bn SURE programme. The bonds carry a triple A rating. Demand was enormous, totaling over €230bn. From today’s auction, the EU plans to raise €17bn; the bulk (€10bn) from the sale of 10-year debt. The bonds...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Dollar weakness is today’s most eye-catching, but also most inexplicable market move. It isn’t fiscally related. We lost track on the latest twists on Capitol Hill regarding pre-election fiscal stimulus, but hold our line that a big boost won’t come ahead of the November 3 Presidential election. Risk sentiment...

Chaotic Markets With Many Themes Going On

It's a rather chaotic week with many themes developing. The first October surprise of US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infects seemed to have fade as he's back in election campaign. Just as challenger Joe Biden appeared to be widening lead, according to mainstream polls, another October surprise surfaced with...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets: Global (equity) markets already reached a tipping point earlier this week. The theme of more US fiscal stimulus was exhausted and no longer able to support a continuation of the risk rally. Most likely, there won’t be concrete news on the degree of additional stimulus before the US election...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets There wasn’t much to guide trading, leaving a fragile sentiment at the steering wheel. Mixed corporate earnings couldn’t help clear the sky either. Risky assets had been thriving over the past few days and weeks as ongoing talks between the US Democrats and Republicans kept hopes for stimulus alive,...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets European stock markets failed to build on yesterday’s US momentum. They currently shed around 0.7% and re-approach the intraday lows. The European banking sector (-2%) in amongst the underperformers with the German Bundesbank warning in its Financial Stability Review that the effects of the real economic crisis have not...

Sterling Softens on Restrictions and Brexit Deadlock, Aussie Retreats Further

Sterling softens broadly today as UK unemployment rate rose more than expected while the part of the country is returning to restrictions. Additionally, there appears to be no progress on Brexit negotiation ahead of the EU summit later this week. Australian Dollar is the second weakest as China moves...

Germany ZEW dropped sharply to 56.1, great euphoria evaporated

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped sharply to 56.1 in October, down from 77.4, missed expectation of 74.0. Germany Current Situation Index improved to -59.5, up from -66.0, slightly better than expectation of -60. Eurozone ZEW Economist Sentiment dropped to 52.3, down from 7.39, well below expectation of 70.5. Eurozone...

German ZEW Is Expected

The German Federal Statistical Office has posted final readings of September CPI at -0.2% on year, as expected. ZEW survey results of October for Germany will be released later today: Economic sentiment expected at 70 and current situation anticipated at –58. From a technical point of view, on a 30-min...

ZEW Today And New IMF Economic Outlook

Market movers today Today the ZEW figures will give us a first glimpse of what is in store for the German manufacturing sector in October. The rebound has been quite solid so far but with mixed signals in September as industrial production actually declined. We will also look out for IMF's...

German Wholesale Prices On The Upside

Earlier this morning, German September Wholesale prices were released at +1.8%, vs -1.6% on year expected. On a monthly basis, they were released at +0.0%, vs +0.2% expected. Tomorrow, September inflation rate will be published. From a technical point of view, on a 30-min chart, EUR/USD stands above a strong...

Weekly Focus: Prospect of Further US Fiscal Stimulus Drives Markets

The status of President Donald Trump's health has been anything but clear since he tested positive with COVID-19 on Friday last week. It has been important for markets, though, and his discharge from hospital on Monday boosted global equities. His positive test caused an immediate plunge in his chances...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The global trading dynamics was quite similar to yesterday. There were hardly any data with market moving potential in EMU or in the US. Chinese markets reopened after the Golden Week holidays and joined the risk rally on other markets. Joe Biden holding a significant lead in the polls...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The ‘by default’ risk-on optimism that reigned global trading recently, simply continued today. Asian and European equities joined the rally from WS yesterday, even as gains on European markets (0.75%) still slightly lagged yesterday’s WS gain (1.74% S&P). US indices also again opened with gains of about 0.5%. Constructive...

German Trade Balance Below Expectations

The German Federal Statistical Office has posted August trade balance at 12.8 billion euros surplus, below 16 billion euros surplus expected. Yesterday, Germany's industrial production declined 0.2% on month in August, well below +1.5% expected. From a technical point of view, on a daily chart, EUR/USD stands below a former...

Bundebank Weidmann sees not reason to deviate from ECB’s assessment

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said ECB's monetary stance is "currently appropriate" and "at the moment I see no reason to deviate from our assessment." Indeed, he argued that the economy could turn out to be better than ECB's baseline scenario, because the EUR 750B EU recovery package wasn't counted in,...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The shocker effect from Trump shelving fiscal stimulus talks yesterday evening already dissipated today. An overnight follow-up tweet from the US president suggesting he would still sign smaller, individual stimulus bills comforted markets. Most Asian markets even finished in green. Europe started off in positive territory but is trading...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets All parts fell in place for an exciting risk-on repositioning yesterday, in particular on US markets. Comforting news from the political scene/on the organization of the elections, ongoing hope for additional fiscal stimulus and solid eco data all supported investors mood. Aside from solid stock markets gains, it also...

Sterling and Aussie Turn Weaker, Dollar and Euro Mixed

Sterling is currently the worst performing one today so far, on the never-ending concerns of coronavirus infections and no-deal Brexit risk. Australian Dollar is closely following as second weakest after RBA indicated more easing ahead to support employment. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is currently the strongest,...

German Scholz: Sharp rise in coronavirus infections underlying the need of timely recovery fund

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said, "The new normal in times of the coronavirus pandemic requires that we remain vigilant and adapt our daily routine to the development of the pandemic." "The sharp rise in infections also underlines the need to implement Europe's ambitious recovery programme timely and to set the...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets US President Trump’s positive Covid-19 test and the possible implications stemming from his upcoming quarantine period dominated news coverage today. It adds an umpteenth layer of uncertainty in what will likely become the most contested US presidential election on record. The Vix index – expected volatility of the S&P...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets In line with price action earlier this week, trading in the major markets remains sentiment driven. Today, investors again saw the glass half full. The story on an additional US fiscal stimulus can be labelled as becoming some kind of an evergreen. It is almost impossible to assess the...

Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 53.7, led by Germany

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.7 in September, up from August's 51.7. Markit noted that output and news were both up sharply, supported by resurgence in export trade. Growth in region was led by strong manufacturing upturn in Germany. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing hit...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets This week’s trading continues to be choppy in nature. European equity markets were looking against losses of up to 0.5% until the more positive start of US bourses. Core bonds hardly profit from the mild risk-off European environment, but do face some pressure as US investors get involved. US...

Markets in Range, Trapped by Low Month-End Volatility

The forex markets are generally staying in tight range today, without much reaction to better than expected job data from US and GDP from Canada. Nor was there much movements after comments from ECB President and BoE Chief Economist. Subdued month-end trading is keeping volatility very low. Nevertheless, it's...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Investors’ mood turned more balanced. Headlines stories didn’t provided enough positive news to continue yesterday’s rally. The debate on US fiscal stimulus continues as the Democratic Party prepared a new proposal, but it remains highly uncertain whether a deal is possible as the US election fever is rising. European...

German Inflation In Sight

Later today, the German Federal Statistical Office will post September CPI, expected flat on year. Tomorrow, August Retail Sales will be expected at +0.5% on month, vs -0.9% in July. Unemployment rate will also be released, expected at 4.6%. From a technical point of view, on a daily chart, EUR/USD...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Hesitancy, reluctance and caution is the most adequate description of global mood at the start of the last trading session of the week. Headlines on corona are again the dominant factor for sentiment. Rising cases in Europe (and elsewhere) and subsequent actions to limit social activity are raising uncertainty...